Democrat Phil Murphy leads Republican Kim Guadagno by 14 points among likely voters in the race for New Jersey governor, according to today’s Monmouth University Poll. Guadagno last month hit Murphy  on immigration, but the poll shows her stuck. In fact, with less than a week to go before the election, most voters say they don’t have a clear idea of either candidate’s political views. The poll finds that 53% of likely voters support Murphy and 39% support Guadagno in next Tuesday’s election for governor. Independent candidates garner 2% of the vote and 7% of voters remain undecided. Murphy held a similar 51% to 37% lead over Guadagno at the beginning of October.

Among registered Democrats, Murphy has an 81% to 13% advantage. Among registered Republicans, Guadagno has a 70% to 18% edge. Among unaffiliated voters, Murphy holds a slim 46% to 43% lead. Unaffiliated voters represent 4-in-10 of all registered voters in New Jersey, but they will only comprise about one-fourth of Tuesday’s electorate due to their lower turnout rate in non-presidential elections.

“After failing to generate voter attention for her property tax plan, Guadagno changed tactics and tried to paint Murphy as out of step over his sanctuary state comments. It hasn’t worked,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

The poll asked generally about whether the two candidates’ political views align with the opinions of most Garden State voters. Overall, 28% of voters think that Murphy’s political views are generally in line with state residents while 18% say his views are out of step with most New Jerseyans. A majority of 53%, though, say they don’t know enough about his views to determine whether they are in line or out of step with the state.

“This election has been the proverbial tree falling in a forest. As much as Guadagno has tried, the voters just haven’t been listening. She might have been able to make some headway with a more attentive electorate, but that just wasn’t in the cards this year. Most voters are simply going to walk into the voting booth next week and choose ‘X’ the Republican or ‘Y’ the Democrat,” said Murray.

In addition to a majority saying they don’t know whether Murphy’s political outlook aligns with the views of most residents, a similar 57% say the same about Guadagno. Another 18% feel her political views are generally in line with the Garden State and 25% say they are out of step with most New Jerseyans.

The Monmouth University Poll also finds that more than one-third of likely voters have not formed an opinion about either major party nominee. While 36% hold a favorable view of Murphy and 30% have an unfavorable view, 34% express no opinion. This is not drastically different from his 33% favorable and 23% unfavorable rating four weeks ago. His favorable rating has gone up an insignificant 3 points and his unfavorable rating has risen by 7 points.

Guadagno currently has a 29% favorable and 32% unfavorable rating, with 39% of likely voters having no opinion of her. Last month, she had a 31% favorable and 25% unfavorable rating. Her favorable rating declined by an insignificant 2 points while her unfavorable rating went up 7 points.

“We are almost certain to see a record low turnout on Tuesday. The irony is that even though the electorate will be comprised of people who tend to vote in most elections, a majority of them will be casting ballots without having a clear idea what either candidate actually stands for.” said Murray.

Monmouth’s polling estimates about 38% of registered voters will participate in this year’s election. Turnout was 40% in the 2013 contest which is the current record low for a gubernatorial election in New Jersey.

Monmouth University conducted the poll by telephone from October 27 to 31, 2017 with 529 New Jersey residents likely to vote in the 2017 gubernatorial election.  The results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent.