- A point of personal privilege.
I am a fearless pundit. Sometimes I’m right, and sometimes I’m wrong.
When I’m wrong, I own up to it. But my critics harp on my wrong predictions all day long.
So please read my following column, “2020 Will be the Year of the African-American Voter.” published on New Year’s Eve this year (https://www.nj.com/opinion/2019/12/2020-will-be-the-year-of-the-african-american-voter-opinion.html). And then try to find a more accurate forecast of the current shape of this election.
- Joe Biden is now on a faster track to the Democratic presidential nomination.
The scope of Biden’s triumph cannot be overstated.
With little money, no television commercials, and a media heavily biased against him, he swept the Deep South and won every significant state except California, including Texas, Virginia, North Carolina, and Massachusetts.
Joe will overwhelm Bernie Sanders in the Florida primary on March 17. Florida is the worst Sanders state in the country, given the antipathy towards him of the Cuban community, who despises him for his defenses of Castro, and the Jewish community, who mistrusts him for his virulent anti-Israel rhetoric.
After Florida, Biden will then win all three of the “Eastern Triangle” primaries, New York and Pennsylvania on April 28 and New Jersey on June 2. And sitting in the “Catbird Seat” is New Jersey, poised to endorse Biden and act as a kingmaker, is Governor Phil Murphy.
Biden will arrive at the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee in July with the largest number of pledged delegates. If he does not win on the first ballot, the Superdelegates will put him over the top on the second ballot.
- Biden now has a vice presidential running mate dilemma. The endorsement of Governor Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan would win him that primary on March 10. Whitmer would make a superb running mate for Joe.
But Biden owes the African-American community EVERYTHING. He stands today as the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination due to the overwhelming support he received from the African-American community, and he will need a huge turnout from them to prevail in the general election.
Accordingly, he MUST offer the VP to Stacey Abrams.
Plus, Biden is running ahead of Sanders in Michigan, and I think his current Joe-Mentum will result in his victory.
- Now for some miscellaneous awards:
Winner of the John Connally Hapless Candidacy Award: Michael Bloomberg.
This award is named after John Connally, the former Governor of Texas and Treasury Secretary who ran for the Republican presidential nomination in 1980, spent $11 million, and won exactly one delegate.
Bloomberg duplicated this enormous feat by spending $560 million and winning four delegates from American Samoa.
The truth is that Bloomberg never really had a chance, given his Stop-and-Frisk policy as mayor and the scandal over the treatment of women at his company. He then magnified his Stop and Frisk problem by shamelessly trying to buy the African-American community with his financial largesse. Unfortunately for him, he found that African-Americans are a proud people who are not for sale. This was evident last Sunday when Black churchgoers turned their backs on Bloomberg as he spoke at Brown Chapel AME Church, a historic black church in Selma, Ala., at a service commemorating the anniversary of 1965 “Bloody Sunday.”
Bloomberg is no longer a potentially viable presidential candidate. By suspending his campaign and endorsing Biden for president, Michael Bloomberg has preserved his legacy as a great American mayor and acted most honorably.
Winner of the Marv Throneberry Unforced Error Award: Mikie Sherrill
Marv Throneberry was the error-prone first baseman on the original 1962 New York Mets. On the occasion of his birthday, his fellow Mets were quoted as saying, “We were going to give Marv a birthday cake, but we were afraid that he would drop it.”
Mikie is an excellent first term member of the House of Representatives. I admire her greatly, and I anticipate her being elected as governor of New Jersey in 2025. She did, however, make a significant error in endorsing Michael Bloomberg over Joe Biden, who had come to New Jersey to campaign for her in her original election year of 2018. In politics, loyalty is paramount, and Mikie forgot that famous political rule, “You dance with the one who brung you!”
Grand Prize Winner: The Democratic Party
The Sanders message of Socialist Revolution was a disaster that would have meant a second presidential term for Donald Trump and recapture of the House of Representatives by the Republicans. With a Biden message of “Proven Results, Not Revolution,” the Democrats are on their way to retain the House of Representatives and recapture both the White House and the U.S. Senate.
Biggest Loser: Donald Trump
Biden has been Trump’s major nightmare. The Donald tried to prevent Biden’s nomination by abusing power and committing the impeachable offense of soliciting the intervention of a foreign nation, Ukraine, in a presidential election. Donald, back up the truck at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and prepare to move out your belongings on January 20, 2021.
Winner of the Archie Moore Comeback Award: Joe Biden
The greatest boxing comeback and the greatest fight I ever saw was that of the Old Mongoose, the 42-year-old light heavyweight champion Archie Moore, on December 10, 1958, Montreal, Canada, in his title defense against Canadian fisherman Yvon Durelle. Old Arch survived three knockdowns in the first round and one in the fifth, coming back to knock out Durelle in Round 11. By surviving major defeats in Iowa and New Hampshire and coming back to score ultimate victories in South Carolina and Super Tuesday, the 77-year-old Biden has duplicated Ancient Archie’s comeback feat in the political realm.
Greatest Living American Political Person Award: Jim Clyburn
This endorsement of Biden in South Carolina by this hero of the Civil Rights Revolution was the most significant endorsement in modern American political history. I now have a new item for my “bucket list:” I want to attend a Jim Clyburn South Carolina fish fry. Since I’m kosher, I’ll bring my own tilapia and cooking utensils!
Alan J. Steinberg served as regional administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush and as executive director of the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission.