Poll: Booker Loses Democratic Primary to Biden, Warren, Sanders in His Own State

Monmouth University Poll of Iowa Democrats shows former Vice President Joe Biden in the lead, with Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren right behind, while Sen. Cory Booker lags behind at only 1 percent.

Matched in his home state, U.S. Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ) loses to former Vice President Joe Biden in a Democratic Primary for President, according to today’s Monmouth University Poll of New Jersey Democratic voters and independents who lean toward the Democratic Party. Booker also loses to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, statewide polling from Monmouth that in its top three spots reflects national trends.

In a presidential preference test, Booker (9%) trails Biden (26%), Warren (20%), and Sanders (18%).  California Sen. Kamala Harris (6%) and South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg (6%) are the only other candidates in a field of 19 who garner more than 2% support.

“The field will certainly be much smaller by the time New Jersey’s presidential primary rolls around.

Murray
Monmouth Polling Institute Field Director Patrick Murray.

Booker’s home state standing could change dramatically if he can score an upset win in one of the February contests. But as it stands right now, Jersey Democrats are gravitating toward the three candidates who currently dominate the national spotlight,” said Monmouth University Poll Director Patrick Murray.

Despite Booker’s lower standing in the presidential preference poll, he earns personal ratings on par with the other top contenders. Among New Jersey Democrats and Democratic leaners, Booker has a 60% favorable to 24% unfavorable rating, which is similar to Biden (64% to 23%), Sanders (63% to 25%), and Warren (59% to 17%).  Booker has better ratings than either Harris (43% to 22%) or Buttigieg (40% to 13%), although both those candidates are not as well known to New Jersey Democrats.

According to the Monmouth Poll, the New Jersey public as a whole has become less likely to feel that Booker would make a good president since he first launched his campaign. Currently, 29% say he would make a good president and 52% say he would not, with 19% having no opinion. In February, 37% felt he would make a good president and 42% said he would not. A small majority of Democrats (55%, down from 65% in February) say Booker would make a good president, compared to just 21% of independents (down from 32%), and 4% of Republicans (similar to 3%).

MORE POSITIVE VIBES FOR VP

Reviews are more positive when his constituents picture Booker in the vice presidential slot.  Just under half (48%) say Booker would make a good running mate compared to 39% who say he would not, with another 13% offering no opinion. More than 3-in-4 Democrats (78%) say Booker is solid vice presidential material, compared with 39% of independents and 17% of Republicans who say the same.

Opposition has softened on Booker being on the national ticket in 2020 and simultaneously running for reelection to his U.S. Senate seat.  Nearly half the public (49%) says he should only run for president or vice president, which is down from 66% who said he should only pursue national office seven months ago. On the other hand, 29% say Booker should run for both senate and national office (as allowed by state law), which is up slightly from 21% in February. Another 22% have no opinion on what Booker should do in this situation, which is up from 13%.  It should be noted that the February question only asked about the possibility of Booker running for president, while the current poll question included president or vice president as the national office option.  Opposition to Booker being on the 2020 ballot for two different offices has dropped among all partisan groups since February.

Monmouth University conducted the poll by telephone from September 12 to 16, 2019 with 713 New Jersey adults, which has a +/- 3.7 percentage point sampling margin of error.  Some results in this release are based on 325 registered voters who identify as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party and have a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percentage points.  The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch.

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS                                                             

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

[Q1 & Q4 held for future release.]

[Q2-3 previously released.]

[QUESTIONS 5 & 6 WERE ROTATED]

5.     Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bob Menendez is doing as United States Senator?

All adults

Sept.
2019

Approve

36%

Disapprove

43%

(VOL) Don’t know

21%

   (n)

(713)

TREND:
Registered voters

Sept.
2019

Feb.
2019

April
2018

July
2017

May
2016

July
2015

May
2015

Feb.
2015

Sept.
2014

June
2014

April
2014

Feb.
2014

Dec.
2013

April
2013

Feb.
2013

Approve

37%

40%

37%

41%

41%

38%

42%

49%

45%

47%

51%

49%

47%

44%

41%

Disapprove

45%

45%

38%

35%

31%

38%

38%

27%

30%

34%

31%

30%

27%

38%

31%

(VOL) Don’t know

18%

15%

25%

23%

28%

23%

20%

24%

26%

19%

18%

21%

26%

18%

28%

   (n)

(651)

(549)

(632)

(758)

(703)

(453)

(441)

(712)

(680)

(717)

(690)

(690)

(698)

(694)

(697)

TREND: Registered

voters continued

April
2012

Feb.
2012

Oct.
2011

Aug.
2011

May
2011

July
2010

Oct.
2008

April
2008

Jan.
2008

Approve

40%

41%

43%

38%

46%

38%

34%

41%

37%

Disapprove

25%

26%

29%

33%

28%

33%

25%

31%

25%

(VOL) Don’t know

35%

33%

28%

29%

26%

29%

41%

28%

37%

   (n)

(692)

(709)

(693)

(730)

(725)

(747)

(900)

(720)

(698)

6.     Do you approve or disapprove of the job Cory Booker is doing as United States Senator?

All adults

Sept.
2019

Approve

45%

Disapprove

37%

(VOL) Don’t know

18%

   (n)

(713)

TREND: Registered

voters

Sept.

2019

Feb.

2019

April
2018

July
2017

May
2016

July
2015

May
2015

Feb.
2015

Sept.
2014

June
2014

April
2014

Feb.
2014

Dec.
2013

Approve

45%

48%

54%

50%

53%

45%

51%

51%

42%

48%

47%

47%

37%

Disapprove

40%

38%

31%

31%

21%

24%

21%

21%

23%

25%

23%

20%

21%

(VOL) Don’t know

16%

14%

15%

20%

27%

31%

27%

27%

35%

27%

30%

32%

43%

   (n)

(651)

(549)

(632)

(758)

(703)

(453)

(441)

(712)

(680)

(717)

(690)

(690)

(698)

[Q7-10 previously released.]

11.  How much have you heard about the drinking water problem in the city of Newark – a lot, a little, or nothing at all?

Sept.
2019

A lot

46%

A little

33%

Nothing at all

21%

   (n)

(713)

11B.  How much responsibility does Cory Booker have for this problem – a great deal, some, only a little, or none at all?

Sept.
2019

A great deal

28%

Some

23%

Only a little

10%

None at all

10%

(VOL) Don’t know

8%

Not heard (from Q11)

21%

   (n)

(713)

[Q12-16 held for future release.]

[Q17 WAS ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS WHO IDENTIFY AS DEMOCRATS OR LEAN TOWARD THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY; n= 325, moe= +/- 5.4%.]

17.    I know the 2020 election is far away, but who would you support for the Democratic nomination for president if the candidates were the following? [INCLUDES LEANERS] [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

  (with leaners)

Sept.
2019

Joe Biden

26%

Elizabeth Warren

20%

Bernie Sanders

18%

Cory Booker

9%

Pete Buttigieg

6%

Kamala Harris

6%

Tulsi Gabbard

2%

Bill de Blasio

1%

Amy Klobuchar

1%

Andrew Yang

1%

Michael Bennet

<1%

Steve Bullock

<1%

Julián Castro

<1%

Beto O’Rourke

<1%

Tim Ryan

<1%

Tom Steyer

<1%

Marianne Williamson

<1%

John Delaney

0%

Joe Sestak

0%

(VOL) Other

<1%

(VOL) No one

2%

(VOL) Undecided

8%

(n)

(325)

[Q18 WAS ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS WHO IDENTIFY AS DEMOCRATS OR LEAN TOWARD THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY; n= 325, moe= +/-5.4%.]

18.   I’m going to read you the names of some people who are running for president in 2020.  Please tell me if your general impression of each is favorable or unfavorable, or if you don’t really have an opinion. If you have not heard of the person, just let me know. [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

 Democratic voters only:   

Favor-able

Unfavor-able

No opinion

Not

heard of

(n)

Former Vice President Joe Biden

64%

23%

11%

1%

(325)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders

63%

25%

11%

1%

(325)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren

59%

17%

17%

7%

(325)

 

 

 

 

 

 

California Senator Kamala Harris

43%

22%

26%

9%

(325)

 

 

 

 

 

 

South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg

40%

13%

31%

16%

(325)

 

 

 

 

 

 

New Jersey Senator Cory Booker

60%

24%

16%

0%

(325)

 

 

 

 

 

 

ASKED OF EVERYONE:

19.   Do you think Cory Booker would or would not make a good president?

TREND:

Sept.
2019

Feb.
2019

Would

29%

37%

Would not

52%

42%

(VOL) Don’t know

19%

21%

   (n)

(713)

(604)

20.   If he does not win the nomination, do you think Cory Booker would or would not make a good running mate for vice president?

Sept.
2019

Would

48%

Would not

39%

(VOL) Don’t know

13%

   (n)

(713)

21.   Booker is up for reelection to the Senate in 2020. If he wins the Democratic nomination for either president or vice president, do you think he should run for Senate as well or just run for president or vice president?

TREND

Sept.
2019

Feb.
2019*

Run for Senate as well

29%

21%

Just run for president or vice president

49%

66%

(VOL) Don’t know

22%

13%

   (n)

(713)

(604)

    *Feb ’19 Question did not include the nomination for vice president

[Q22-41 held for future release.]

METHODOLOGY

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from September 12 to 16, 2019 with a random sample of 713 New Jersey adults age 18 and older, in English. This includes 359 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 354 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone. Telephone numbers were selected through random digit dialing and landline respondents were selected with a modified Troldahl-Carter youngest adult household screen. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Final sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census information. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and Dynata (RDD sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)

Self-Reported

20% Republican

45% Independent

35% Democrat

 

48% Male

52% Female

 

29% 18-34

36% 35-54

35% 55+

 

59% White

13% Black

17% Hispanic

11% Asian/Other

 

64% No degree

36% 4 year degree

 

 

MARGIN OF ERROR

unweighted  sample

moe

(+/-)

TOTAL

 

713

3.7%

REGISTERED VOTER

Yes

651

3.9%

 

No

62

12.5%

SELF-REPORTED PARTY ID

Republican

142

8.2%

Independent

293

5.7%

Democrat

254

6.2%

IDEOLOGY

Liberal

201

6.9%

 

Moderate

295

5.7%

 

Conservative

196

7.0%

GENDER

Male

344

5.3%

Female

369

5.1%

AGE

18-34

148

8.1%

35-54

271

6.0%

55+

285

5.8%

RACE

White non-Hispanic

481

4.5%

Other

207

6.8%

COLLEGE GRADUATE

No degree

324

5.5%

 

4 year degree

387

5.0%

INCOME

<$50K

132

8.5%

$50 to <100K

215

6.7%

$100K+

315

5.5%

REGION

North

350

5.2%

 

Central

168

7.6%

 

South

181

7.3%

MARGIN OF ERROR

 

 

 

unweighted  sample

moe
(+/-)

DEMOCRATIC VOTERS

 

325

5.4%

IDEOLOGY

Liberal

153

7.9%

Moderate/Conservative

165

7.6%

GENDER

Male

133

8.5%

Female

192

7.1%

AGE

18-49

159

7.8%

50+

163

7.7%

RACE

White, non-Hispanic

192

7.1%

Other

122

8.9%

COLLEGE GRADUATE

No degree

131

8.6%

4 year degree

194

7.0%

REGION

 

North

173

7.5%

Central-South

146

8.1%

 

###

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