Sexism holding back Democratic Women Candidates in NJ

Sexism, threat hit Sherrill especially hard

Fairleigh Dickinson University, Madison, NJ, February 20, 2023 – While female candidates have become increasingly visible in New Jersey politics, sexism is holding back Democratic women running for statewide office. According to the latest results from the FDU Poll, sexism and perceived threats to male dominance are costing Democratic women candidates about six points in favorability statewide: a substantial deficit in tight races.

“Sexism is present in men and women, Democrats and Republicans,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of Government and Politics at FDU, and the director of the poll. “And sexism doesn’t mean being against all women, just those that are seen as being the wrong kind of woman, a group that’s much more likely to include Democratic than Republican candidates.”

The study of sexism was embedded in a survey looking at a long list of potential 2025 gubernatorial candidates. The results of that study, released previously, showed that 2021 nominee Jack Ciattarelli and talk show host Bill Spadea were front-runners in the race for the Republican nomination, and 11^th District Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill was an early front-runner for the Democratic nomination. New Jersey has never elected a woman to the US Senate, and only one woman, Republican Christine Todd Whitman, has ever been elected governor.

The survey measured sexism using a shortened versions of the ambivalent sexism scale, which combines elements of both hostile sexism (the belief that women threaten men’s status) and benevolent sexism (the belief that women have to be protected from the world). Respondents were split into two groups, depending on whether they were in the top half of scores on the scale, or the bottom half. On average, those New Jersey residents who scored in the top half of the sexism scale were six points less likely to say that they had a favorable view of the female candidates asked about in the survey. The biggest difference came in evaluations of Sherrill: 24 percent of residents who scored on the lower half of the sexism scale said that they knew who she was and viewed her favorably. Among residents with higher sexism scores, that figure was just 14 percent, a difference of ten points. Male Democratic candidates also did slightly worse among more sexist New Jerseyans, but the differences weren’t statistically significant.

Interestingly, these differences between more and less sexist individuals are entirely driven by Democrats, rather than Republicans. While Democrats, on average, have lower sexism scores than Republicans in the state, Democrats with higher sexism scores were 17 points less likely to say that they had favorable views of Sherrill (38 percent to 21 percent). The biggest effect of higher sexism on Republicans was on views of State Senator Mike Testa, whose favorability was 12 points higher (25 percent to 13 percent) among Republicans in the top half of sexism scores.

“Women candidates are stuck: seeming too feminine can make people think they’re not leadership material. Being too masculine can be seen as off-putting,” said Cassino. “This is exacerbated for women who are seen as feminists, making them threatening to men who are invested in the current system.”

The effect of sexism and threat on candidates was also assessed by randomly assigning respondents to the survey to be asked about all of the female candidates before all of the male candidates, or having the candidate order shuffled. Front-loading the female candidates meant that respondents had to answer questions about five female figures in a row, presenting a threat to men who perceive female candidates as a threat to their status.

On average, asking about the female candidates first led to a six-point decline in favorability among female candidates, with respondents being nine points less likely to say that they hold favorable views of Sherrill and Lieutenant Governor Sheila Oliver. As before, this effect was only seen among Democratic candidates. For instance, when fictional candidate Paula Hawkins was said to be Republican, the order of the candidates didn’t matter to her favorability at all (the same holds for actual Republican political figure State Senator Holly Schepisi). When she was said to be a Democrat, asking about women first reduced her favorability by five points, from 6 percent to just one percent.

Similarly, when we separate out the effects of the candidate order manipulation on Democrats and Republicans, the difference in effects becomes clear. Asking about women first reduces Sherrill’s favorability by 19 points among Democrats; Oliver’s by 16. Even fictional candidate Hawkins sees her favorability drop by 9 points among Democrats, when she’s said to be a Democrat herself. In contrast, the order manipulation has no strong effect among Republican voters.

“Some voters are very responsive to threats to male dominance,” said Cassino. “One or two women on a ballot, especially if they’re not on the top of the ballot, might not be seen as a threat. But a whole lot of them definitely is.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted between February 1 and February 6, 2023, using a certified list of adult New Jersey residents carried out by Braun Research of Princeton, New Jersey. Respondents were randomly chosen from the list, and contacted via either live caller telephone interviews, or text-to-web surveys sent to cellular phones, resulting in an overall sample of 808 respondents. 235 of the surveys were carried out via live caller telephone interviews on landlines, and the remainder (573) were done on a web platform via weblinks sent via SMS to cell phones, or via live caller cell phone interviews. Surveys were conducted only in English.

The data were weighted to be representative of the population of adult NJ residents, as of the 2020 US Census. The weights used, like all weights, balance the demographic characteristics of the sample to match known population parameters. The weighted results used here are balanced to match parameters for sex, age, education and race/ethnicity.

SPSSINC RAKE, an SPSS extension module that simultaneously balances the distributions of all variables using the GENLOG procedure, was used to produce final weights. Weights were trimmed to prevent individual interviews from having too much influence on the final results. The use of these weights in statistical analysis helps to ensure that the demographic characteristics of the sample approximate the demographic characteristics of the target population. The size of these weights is used to construct the measure of design effects, which indicate the extent to which the reported results are being driven by the weights applied to the data, rather than found in the data itself. Simply put, these design effects tell us how many additional respondents would have been needed to get the weighted number of respondents across weighted categories: larger design effects indicate greater levels of under-representation in the data. In this case, calculated design effects are approximately 1.3.

All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for 808 residents is +/-3.5 percentage points, at a 95 percent confidence interval. Including the design effects, the margin of error would be +/-4.6 percentage points, though the figure not including them is much more commonly reported.

This error calculation does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, differences in translated forms, or context effects. While such errors are known to exist, they are often unquantifiable within a particular survey, and all efforts, such as randomization and extensive pre-testing of items, have been used to minimize them.

Weighted Telephone Sample Characteristics

808 New Jersey Residents

Figures are weighted to overall voter characteristics from the 2020 US Census. Respondents who refused to answer a demographic item are not included.

Man                                 47%                 N = 381

Woman                             51%                 N = 412

Some Other Way           2%                  N = 15

18-30                           17%                N = 136

31-44                           29%                 N = 232

45-64                           33%                 N = 264

65+                               21%                 N = 168

Democrat (with leaners)              50%                 N = 357

Independent                                  15%                 N = 110

Republican (with leaners)           35%                 N = 246

White                                            55%                N = 443

Black                                               11%                N = 92

Hispanic/Latino/a                                      18%                N = 145

Asian                                        9%                  N = 69

Other/Multi-racial                                     2%                  N = 15

No college degree                       55%                N = 447

College degree or more              45%                N = 350

Question Wording and Order

NJ1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Phil Murphy is handling his job as governor?

1. Approve
2. Disapprove
3. Not Sure/Don’t Know [Vol]
4. Refused [Vol]

NJ2. I’m going to describe some bills that might be considered by the state legislature this year. For each, tell me whether you would support that bill, oppose that bill, or if you don’t know.

A. Currently, high schools in New Jersey start as early as 7:30 in the morning. One bill would require that high schools at 8:30 or later. Students would stay later to get the same amount of class time.

1. Support bill
2. Oppose bill
3. Not sure
4. Don’t Know [vol]
5. Refused [vol]

[NJ2B-NJ6 Held for future release]

I’m going to read you the names of some people who might run for Governor of New Jersey in the next election. Some are already well known, and some aren’t. For each, tell me if you’ve heard of them, and, if you have, whether you have a positive or negative view of them.

[Respondents are randomly assigned to get the candidates in order A or B]

Order A:

1. Newark Mayor Democrat Ras Baraka
2. Republican State Senator Holly Schepisi
3. Former Republican Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli
4. Jersey City Mayor Democrat Steven Fulop
5. [Democratic/Republican] [Mayor/Assemblywoman] Paula Hawkins*
6. [Democratic/Republican] [Mayor/Assemblyman] Vance Kassebaum*
7. Current first lady Democrat Tammy Murphy
8. Democratic Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill
1. Republican Talk Show Host Bill Spadea
10. Republican State Senator Mike Testa
11. Lieutenant Governor Democrat Sheila Oliver
50. Former Democratic Senate President Stephen Sweeney

Order B:

1. Democratic Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill
2. Republican State Senator Holly Schepisi
3. Current first lady Democrat Tammy Murphy
4. [Democratic/Republican] [Mayor/Assemblywoman] Paula Hawkins*
5. Lieutenant Governor Democrat Sheila Oliver
6. Newark Mayor Democrat Ras Baraka
7. Former Republican Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli
8. Jersey City Mayor Democrat Steven Fulop
1. [Democratic/Republican] [Mayor/Assemblyman] Vance Kassebaum*
10. Republican Talk Show Host Bill Spadea
11. Republican State Senator Mike Testa
50. Former Democratic Senate President Stephen Sweeney

[Hawkins and Kassebaum are made up names, used as baselines. They are randomly assigned across Dem/Rep and Mayor/Assembly Member]

For each:

C1. Have you heard of [insert name here]?

1. Yes
2. No
3. Refused [vol]

C2. [If C1 is “yes”] Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them, or do you not know enough about them to have an opinion?

1. Favorable
2. Unfavorable
3. Don’t know enough to have an opinion
4. Refused [vol]

NJ2. I’m going to describe some bills that might be considered by the state legislature this year. For each, tell me whether you would support that bill, oppose that bill, or if you don’t know.

1. Currently, high schools in New Jersey start as early as 7:30 in the morning. One bill would require that high schools at 8:30 or later. Students would stay later to get the same amount of class time.
2. [Held for future release]

[For each]

6. Support bill
7. Oppose bill
8. Not sure
9. Don’t Know [vol]
10. Refused [vol]

NJ4. [Half of respondents get this here, half get it before NJ3] When you go to a restaurant, do you prefer it if you can bring your own bottle, or if the restaurant serves its own alcohol?

1. Prefer BYOB
2. Prefer restaurant to serve alcohol
3. No Preference/ Don’t Know [Vol]
4. Refused  [Vol]

NJ3. Governor Murphy has proposed increasing the number of liquor licenses for restaurants in New Jersey. [This would make it easier for restaurants to serve alcohol, and encourage more chain restaurants to open]. But [this could hurt some restaurants that bought licenses for tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars.] [Rotate order of pros/cons] What do you think? Should the state expand the number of liquor licenses, or not?

1. State should expand the number of licenses
2. State should not expand the number of licenses
3. Don’t know [Vol]
4. Refused [Vol]

NJ4. [Half of respondents get this here, half get it before NJ3] When you go to a restaurant, do you prefer it if you can bring your own bottle, or if the restaurant serves its own alcohol?

1. Prefer BYOB
2. Prefer restaurant to serve alcohol
3. No Preference/ Don’t Know [Vol]
4. Refused  [Vol]

NJ5. Right now, a candidate can only be nominated by one party, the Republican Party, the Democratic Party or some third party. Some have proposed that candidates can be nominated by more than one party, which was legal in New Jersey in the past, but is currently banned. What do you think? Should the state allow third parties to nominate the same person for an office as one of the major parties?

1. Support allowing multiple parties to nominate the same person
2. Oppose allowing multiple parties to nominate the same person
3. Don’t Know [Vol]
4. Refused [Vol]

NJ6. There have been several proposals to modify the state’s ban on single use bags at grocery stores. What do you think? Should keep the bag ban as is, modify the ban on disposable bags, or overturn the law completely?

1. Keep ban as is
2. Modify ban
3. Overturn law
4. Don’t Know [vol]
5. Refused [vol]

Release Tables

*Kassebuam and Hawkins are fictional candidates used to establish baseline results