NJPP REPORT: Does the County Line Matter? An Analysis of New Jersey’s 2020 Primary Election Results
NJPP REPORT: Does the County Line Matter? An Analysis of New Jersey’s 2020 Primary Election Results
For Immediate Release
August 13, 2020 – This year’s primary election results were skewed by New Jersey’s unique ballot design, according to a new report released today by New Jersey Policy Perspective (NJPP).
The report, Does the County Line Matter? An Analysis of New Jersey’s 2020 Primary Election Results, reviews the results of ten contested congressional primaries where different candidates held the “county line” in different counties or where not all counties used a “county line” ballot.
“In 9 of these 10 races, candidates did better when they were on the county line,” said Julia Sass Rubin, report author, NJPP Trustee, and associate professor at the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University. “The advantage provided by the county line, especially for lesser known candidates, shifts power away from voters and towards the small group of party insiders who award the line. Rather than having to please the voters, candidates become beholden to those party insiders. This is a big problem for democracy in New Jersey.’
The report finds that being on the county line provided candidates with a substantial advantage, as candidates’ share of the vote varied by as much as 50 percentage points based on whether or not they were on the line. The biggest difference in a candidate’s performance was in the four contests in which different candidates were on the county line in different counties within the same race. In those four contests, the average vote margin between appearing on the county line and having your opponent on the county line was 35 percentage points.
“Based on this analysis, it is hard for anyone to dispute that power in New Jersey is clearly in the hands of the very few — not regular people, and not voters,” said Sue Altman, Executive Director of New Jersey Working Families Alliance. “The county line creates a dire lack of accountability that privileges incumbents, party bosses and the “chosen few.” While Dr. Rubin’s analysis focuses on congressional races, the effects of the line are felt acutely down ballot as well, in races like Freeholder, Mayor, and state Legislature. All of these positions control huge budgets, almost completely without voter accountability.”
The power of the county line is evident in the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate, where candidate Hirsh Singh received 73% of the vote in counties where he had the line, but only 23% of the vote in counties where he was off of the line. In the Democratic primary for the 4th congressional district, candidate Stephanie Schmid received 72% of the vote in counties where she had the line, but only 32% of the vote where Christine Conforti was listed first on the county line.
The report also found that county line ballots appeared to contribute to voter confusion, resulting in substantial overvotes and undervotes. This pattern is evident in both the Democratic CD 2 primary, in which almost 20% of voters did not cast a vote for the U.S. Senate, and in the Democratic CD4 primary, in which more than 28% of the voters did not cast a valid vote for the House of Representatives. In both cases, the disenfranchisement of large numbers of voters is likely the result of the county line.
New Jersey Policy Perspective President Brandon McKoy noted in the report release that undemocratic elections lead to policies that do not reflect the needs of the electorate, saying: “To have policies and budgets that reflect the needs of voters, we need free and fair elections in New Jersey. We cannot deny the influence of the line on elections. Design matters, especially when it comes to ballots.”
Watch the report release here.
New Jersey Policy Perspective (NJPP) is a nonpartisan think tank that drives policy change to advance economic, social, and racial justice through evidence-based, independent research, analysis, and advocacy.
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