Douglas Tomson, NJ Realtors CEO

As a proud New Jerseyan, we’ve never needed much encouragement to go our own way. We’ll argue for days over whether it’s pork roll or Taylor Ham, defend the importance of jughandles and circles, and fight for our right to never pump our own gas. So, when the national headlines start telling homeowners it’s a bad time to sell, don’t assume they’re telling New Jersey’s story.

I know what the national data says: more homes, fewer buyers, prices stalling, but that’s just not the case here in the Garden State. If sellers are leaning towards not selling, it’s not because it’s not a sellers’ market; there are other dynamics at play here.

A few major factors could be holding potential sellers back right now—let’s talk about them:

First, there’s the question of where the sellers are going. Anecdotally, we hear everyone is moving out of state, but U.S. Census data actually shows NJ ranking 47^th in total domestic net migration, with a loss of 63,900 residents, with most (as of 2024 data) moving to Pennsylvania, New York, and Florida. But that doesn’t answer the microeconomics question of where the sellers are going if they’re trying to stay in state. If a young family bought a home in 2016 with a mortgage interest rate of 3.5%, the idea they’re going to sell to purchase another home at double the price and double the interest rate simply isn’t attractive. The answer is that today’s sellers have to shift their mindset about the move. Years of equity can help offset the undoubtedly higher cost of their next purchase, and limited inventory means buyer competition is still strong in our state, which sellers can capitalize on.

Second, what about the sellers who are ready to move? In walks the bearer of bad news: capital gains tax. These homeowners have accrued years of appreciation in their purchase, which will leave them with a significant capital gains tax bill in our high-cost areas (I won’t even get into the extra taxes known as the Graduated Percent Fee, taking even more equity from the sale.)

And so where does that leave us? With a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The market retains strong prices, buyers are still interested and competitive, and the supply vs. demand is clearly on the sellers’ side. Yet, even though sellers stand to benefit, the perceived downsides dissuade them and keep them on the sidelines of the market. This creates a continuous feedback loop.

Today’s sellers have to consider what they will receive for their home, but also what it will cost them to leave it. When headlines reinforce this national idea that it’s a bad time to sell, despite the strong local conditions, you’re just giving homeowners one more reason to stay put and, in the end, all that does is make the housing market less accessible for everyone.

The problem in our great state isn’t that it is a bad time to sell; it’s that too many homeowners have been given reasons to think they shouldn’t.