Emerson Poll: Democrats Hold 10-Point Midterm Advantage

The final Emerson College Polling national survey before the 2026 Midterm Elections finds the generic Democratic candidate maintaining a significant lead over the Republican, 52% to 42%. President Trump holds a 37% approval rating and 57% disapproval rating among likely voters.

“The 2026 Midterm season wraps with the Republicans at 42%, exactly where they started when tracking began 15 months ago,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “At the time, President Trump’s approval was split, 46% to 47%. Now, the president has a net 20-point disapproval, 37% to 57%. Democratic support climbed eight points over the past fifteen months from 44% to 52%, with undecided and swing voters clearly shifting in the Democrats’ favor. With about 5% still undecided, most of whom are independent and half disapprove of Trump, Democrats’ congressional ceiling could be higher than the poll reports.”

Democrats are most excited to vote in the Midterm Elections: 76% of Democrats are “very excited” compared to 64% of Republicans and 62% of independents.

Voters were asked which of a list of candidate positions most impacts their vote for this November: cost of living (34%) and fighting corruption in the government (28%) top the list. Lowering taxes (10%), fixing immigration laws (8%), ending the Iran War (6%), reforming healthcare (6%), and creating jobs that pay well (4%) follow.

  • Democrats: 38% fighting corruption, 32% lowering cost of living
  • Republicans: 31% lowering cost of living, 23% fighting corruption, 16% lowering taxes
  • Independents: 38% lowering the cost of living, 24% fighting corruption in the government

Twenty-eight percent of voters use AI Chatbots like ChatGPT, Gemini, or Copilot daily, 25% weekly, and 15% monthly. Thirty-two percent say they never use them.

“Reported daily AI usage is highest among voters under 30 at 43%, but majorities of all groups under 50 report using it daily or weekly,” Kimball noted. “Men report using AI chatbots daily at a figure ten points higher than women, 34% to 24%.”

Thirty-eight percent think artificial intelligence is a good thing for society, 30% a bad thing, and 32% are not sure.

“While those under 30 are most likely to use AI daily, 51% think it is a bad thing for society,” Kimball said.

 

 

Voters oppose data centers being built in/near their community, 59% to 29%. Since July, opposition has decreased four points while support increased two points, from 27% to 29%.

  • 41% of Republicans support data centers; 42% oppose.
  • A majority of Democrats (75%) and independents (59%) oppose the building of data centers.

Voters are more split on a nuclear energy plant being built in their community: 49% oppose and 42% support. Nine percent are neutral.

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