Testa Campaign: Polling Methodology was ‘Dead Wrong’

Team Testa at the East Point Lighthouse.

Following comments from Stockton University’s John Froonjian, Testa Campaign Manager Brittany O’Neill issued the following statement:

“While we don’t hold any ill towards the good folks at Stockton, we are disappointed that they just don’t concede what is obvious – that the methodology in their poll related to partisan turnout was dead wrong and what we said at the time was absolutely right.  LD1 is a +2 Republican district in terms of registration and has averaged +7 in terms of Republican turnout in recent elections.  Despite that, the Stockton poll had a sample that was +6 Democratic.

“We knew instantly the number was wrong and nothing in the final two weeks of the campaign would have precipitated a 20-point swing in our favor.  Moreover, we take issue with the idea that they polled the Assembly race properly.  Their poll showed Land at 27, Milam at 26, and both Simonsen and McClellan at 22.  When you appropriately double that number to base the polling on 50% to win, it showed a 10 and 8 point lead, respectively, for the two Democrats.

“That wasn’t close to reality either.  Releasing that poll caused our campaign and our candidates hours worth of time reassuring grassroots supporters and donors about our prospects for success, and educating them as to why the poll was flawed.  That wasn’t fair to our campaign or the voters, and given the competitive congressional elections in South Jersey on the horizon in 2020, we are hopeful that this incident prompts a full vetting and review by both Strockton’s Polling Institute and the media who cover their polls.”

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