Jack Ciattarelli talked often in the just ended primary campaign about having "the wind at his back" this year.

Really?

Donald Trump will be a big part of the November election. At the moment, his average poll numbers are underwater and what the tariff-infused economy will be like in five months is unknown.

Republicans are still enthused by Trump's showing in the state last fall. Yes, he did better than he did in 2016 and 2020, but there is a bottom line in politics. He still lost the state.

Similarly, there is continuing GOP optimism about how the party has shrunk the Democrats' voter registration advantage by about 300,000 over the last four years. That is impressive, but Dems still hold a registration advantage in excess of 800,000. About 340,000 more Democrats than Republicans voted on Tuesday.

Clearly, Ciattarelli needs all Republicans in New Jersey to be on his side. Will that happen?

This brings us to Bill Spadea, who got just about 100,000 votes in losing badly to Ciattarelli.

It is easy to see why many Republicans consider Spadea an irritant.

In a debate before the election, he would not commit to backing the primary winner.

And as of this writing two days after Election Day, he has not done so.

Spadea's vote total was lower than some people expected. Nonetheless, he does have a passionate following. I personally saw that last month when he got about 300 people to attend a rally in the basement of a Morristown bar.

Ciattarelli's challenge is to get those folks on his side. It would be a shame for the Republican ticket if Spadea doesn't help make that happen.

Ciattarelli did quite well - losing by only three points or so - when he ran against Phil Murphy in 2021.

But Sherrill is not Murphy. She is a much better candidate.

Steve Fulop noted during his primary campaign that Murphy does not inspire people - even those who like his policies. It sounds mean, but there is some truth to that.

Sherrill, who is personable and articulate, does inspire.

It is worth noting that since coming on the scene in 2018, she has won every one of her races by wide margins.

In short, Ciattarelli is facing a stronger candidate than he did four years ago.

Is there any light for the Republican in this seemingly dreary picture?

The view here is that Ciattarelli's best approach is Jersey-centric.

He has lived here all his life; Sherrill has not.

Not only that, in contrast to Congresswoman Sherrill, Ciattarelli has served in local and state government, giving him knowledge and insight on such local issues as property taxes, school funding and housing.

It's one thing to read up on issues, it's another to have worked with them directly.

Of course, detailed positions on issues do not necessarily win votes. If that were true, Fulop, who presented comprehensive position papers, would be the nominee.

At the same time, his background in Jersey government is a logical advantage for Ciattarelli over the Democrat. How he tries to make that work will be worth watching.

It is also worth wondering if Trump, who endorsed Ciattarelli in the primary, will be a visible part of the gubernatorial campaign.

Guess it depends on the poll numbers this fall  - Trump's poll numbers.

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