• Haley primary voters break for Biden in the general election, 63% to 27%, with 10% undecided. In 2020 these voters broke for Biden 52% to 36%.
• Independent voters break for Trump 42% to 39%, with 19% undecided. With the undecided push, Biden’s support increases to 52% and Trump to 48%.
• Those who did not vote in 2020 break for Trump 46% to 17%, with 36% undecided.

Voters were asked why they support Biden or Trump.

• Among Biden voters, 30% support him because they dislike Trump, 26% because they like Biden, 21% because they care about an issue, and 17% support their party’s candidate.
• Among Trump voters, 33% support him because they like Trump, 31% care about an issue, 15% support their party’s candidate, and 12% because they dislike Biden.

With third-party candidates on the ballot, 43% support Trump, 42% Biden, 6% Robert Kennedy Jr., 2% Cornel West, and 1% Jill Stein. Seven percent are undecided.

• Among Trump voters, 83% say they will definitely support him, while 17% could change their minds. Among Biden voters, 87% will definitely support him, and 13% could change their minds. Of Kennedy voters, 57% could change their minds, while 43% will definitely support him.

“This race is well within the poll’s margin of error and could move in either direction. When undecided voters are pushed in the head-to-head matchup, Biden gains a two-point lead; however, when third-party candidates are factored in, Trump has nearly a two-point edge.”

Voters were asked if they think Biden or Trump would do a better job on immigration and border security, abortion access, and the Israel-Hamas war.

• Immigration and border security: 52% Trump, 48% Biden
• Israel-Hamas war: 51% Trump, 49% Biden
• Abortion access: 58% Biden, 42% Trump.

“Independents think Trump would do a better job handling the border than Biden, 53% to 47%, but think Biden would do a better job on abortion access, 61% to 39%, and the Israel-Hamas war, 52% to 48%,” Kimball noted.

The economy is the top issue for 29% of voters, followed by immigration (20%), threats to democracy (14%), healthcare (12%), crime (7%), housing affordability (6%), abortion access (5%), and education (5%).

• Immigration is the top concern among voters over 70, at 34% compared to 9% of voters under 30.

President Biden holds a 41% job approval rating and 48% disapproval. Voters were also asked if they have a favorable or unfavorable view of Biden and Trump. Fifty percent have a favorable view of Biden (28% very favorable, 22% somewhat favorable), while 48% have a favorable view of Trump (32% very favorable, 16% somewhat favorable). Fifty percent have an unfavorable view of Biden (13% somewhat unfavorable, 37% very unfavorable), and 52% have an unfavorable view of Trump (12% somewhat unfavorable, 40% very unfavorable).

On the generic congressional 2024 ballot, 45% support the Democratic candidate, 43% the Republican, and 12% are undecided.