A state Superior Court decision and a Democratic candidate in next year’s gubernatorial election have made racial segregation a live political issue in New Jersey, but most voters don’t perceive the level of segregation in the state or see it as a problem. According to the latest results from the FDU Poll, just 12 percent of New Jersey voters say that the schools where they live are segregated, and just 19 percent say that they want more racial diversity in their neighborhoods.

“There’s a real disconnect between outside measures of segregation and what residents perceive,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of Government and Politics at Fairleigh Dickinson, and the Executive Director of the poll. “Voters in New Jersey just don’t believe that we have segregation here, so getting them to accept changes to address it would be a challenge.”

By many measures, New Jersey is one of the most segregated states in the US, but a majority of voters (55 percent) say they live in a neighborhood that has “a mix of races.”  Only 19 percent say that they would like to see more ethnic and racial diversity in their neighborhood, while two-thirds (68 percent) say things in their neighborhood are “fine the way they are now.” Six percent say they would prefer less diversity in their neighborhood.

According to NIH data covering the years 2017 to 2021^[1], Essex County is the most segregated county in the state, with a residential segregation index of 75, about the same as the outer boroughs of New York City. To put that degree of residential segregation in context, that would rank as among the most segregated counties in Alabama (which, as a state, has a lower segregation score than New Jersey). Somerset (63) and Ocean (64) counties are in the next tier, with index scores in the 60s. Cumberland (35), Gloucester (39) and Middlesex (43) counties have the lowest scores.

“By most measures, integration means that schools and neighborhoods look like the state as a whole,” said Cassino. “But voters seem to think that having a few families from different races or ethnicities means that a school or neighborhood is integrated, or at least integrated enough.”

Because of the legally enforced link between neighborhoods and public schools, residential segregation leads to school segregation. Again, though, voters don’t see their schools as being segregated. For instance, twenty-six percent of white voters say their schools are mostly white, but only 12 percent say that their schools are segregated.

Similarly, only 12 percent of New Jersey voters say that the schools where they live are racially segregated, while three-quarters, 73 percent, say their schools have “a good mix” of racial and ethnic groups. The proportion who say that their schools are segregated doesn’t vary significantly between racial and ethnic groups: 12 percent of white voters say their schools are segregated, but the figure is just 13 percent among Hispanic voters, and 16 percent among Black voters – despite the fact that 48 percent of black students in New Jersey attend schools that are 90 percent non-white and 46 percent of Hispanic students attend schools that are 90 percent non-white

“It’s surprising how little race matters in perception of segregation,” said Cassino. “Even the groups that are in the most segregated areas don’t necessarily see their schools or neighborhoods that way.”

A New Jersey state Superior Court decision last year lambasted the state, saying officials had “intentionally failed to exercise their constitutional obligations and authorities to remedy segregation.” Figures presented in that case showed that three-quarters of students in the state’s public schools were in classrooms that are not representative of the demographics of the state. More troubling, one in four of Black students in the state and 1 in 7 Latino students are in schools that are 99% non-white. According to testimony in the case, much of the segregation is driven by the small size of many New Jersey school districts, and a lack of affordable housing in many of the municipalities with small non-white populations. Negotiations that could lead to a settlement in the case, which was first filed in 2018, are currently underway.

On the political side of the equation, Democratic gubernatorial candidate and Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop has pledged to address school segregation if elected, through programs like magnet schools and shared extra-curricular activities. Such actions are likely to be more popular among liberal and progressive voters in the state, who are much more likely to perceive segregation in their schools and neighborhoods. Thirty-six percent of liberals and progressives in the state say that they would like more diversity in their neighborhoods, compared with just 19 percent of political moderates, and 10 percent of conservatives. The political gap on school segregation is slightly larger: 41 percent of liberals, and 43 percent of progressive voters in the state say that they would prefer more racial diversity in their schools, compared to 19 percent of moderates and 11 percent of conservatives. Despite these political differences, a plurality of voters across groups say that the level of diversity in their schools or neighborhoods is fine how it is.

“Voters on the political left are a big part of the Democratic Party in the state but changing school demographics in New Jersey would mean convincing a lot of moderates that segregation is real and needs to be addressed,” said Cassino. “Making dramatic changes without buy-in from moderates might invite a backlash.”

Despite the levels of segregation in New Jersey schools, a majority of voters in the state (58 percent) say that they’re fine with the levels of racial diversity in their schools right now. Twenty-one percent say that they would prefer more diversity – a group that includes more Black (31 percent) than white voters (18 percent), while six percent of voters say that they’d prefer less diversity in their schools. The gap is even larger when voters are asked about residential segregation: 34 percent of Blacks say that they would prefer more diversity in their neighborhoods, compared to just 16 percent of white voters. Still, a plurality across racial and ethnic groups say that they think their schools and neighborhoods have a good mix of races, or are fine as they are.

This survey is part of a long-term project from the FDU School of Public and Global Affairs tracking perceptions of residential and school segregation in New Jersey. Since the poll started asking these questions to New Jersey residents in 2019, the percentage who say that they would like to see more diversity in their schools has dropped from 26 percent to 21 percent, while the number who say that their schools have “a variety” of races has increased from 49 percent to 56 percent.

Methodology

The statewide survey was conducted between April 1 and April 8, 2024, using a voter list of adult New Jersey residents carried out by Braun Research of Princeton, New Jersey. Voter lists were obtained from Aristotle International of Washington, DC. Respondents were randomly chosen from the list, and contacted via either live caller telephone interviews, or text-to-web surveys sent to cellular phones, resulting in an overall sample of 809 registered voters in New Jersey. 212 of the surveys were carried out via live caller telephone interviews on landlines, 262 on live caller interviews to cell phones, and the remainder (351) were done on a web platform via weblinks sent via SMS to cell phones. Surveys were conducted only in English.

The data were weighted to be representative of the population of New Jersey voters, according to data from Pew Research. The weights used, like all weights, balance the demographic characteristics of the sample to match known population parameters. The weighted results used here are balanced to match parameters for sex, age, education and race/ethnicity.

SPSSINC RAKE, an SPSS extension module that simultaneously balances the distributions of all variables using the GENLOG procedure, was used to produce final weights. Weights were trimmed to prevent individual interviews from having too much influence on the final results. The use of these weights in statistical analysis helps to ensure that the demographic characteristics of the sample approximate the demographic characteristics of the target population. The size of these weights is used to construct the measure of design effects, which indicate the extent to which the reported results are being driven by the weights applied to the data, rather than found in the data itself. Simply put, these design effects tell us how many additional respondents would have been needed to get the weighted number of respondents across weighted categories: larger design effects indicate greater levels of under-representation in the data. In this case, calculated design effects are approximately 1.4.

All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for 809 registered New Jersey voters is +/-3.5 percentage points, at a 95 percent confidence interval. Including the design effects, the margin of error would be +/-4.3 percentage points, though the figure not including them is much more commonly reported.

This error calculation does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, differences in translated forms, or context effects. While such errors are known to exist, they are often unquantifiable within a particular survey, and all efforts, such as randomization and extensive pre-testing of items, have been used to minimize them.

The FDU Poll is a member of the AAPOR Transparency Initiative and is devoted to ensuring that our results are presented in such a way that anyone can quickly and easily get all of the information that they may need to evaluate the validity of our surveys. We believe that transparency is the key to building trust in the work of high-quality public opinion research, and necessary to push our industry forward.

Weighted Telephone Sample Characteristics

809 Registered New Jersey Voters

Figures do not include individuals who declined to answer demographic items.

Man                                    49%                 N = 401

Woman                                              50%                 N = 414

Some Other Way              1%                  N = 6

18-30                                         17%                  N = 137

31-44                                         24%                 N = 199

45-64                                         36%                 N = 296

65+                                             23%                 N = 192

White                                                      49%                  N = 257

Black                                                      15%                  N = 86

Hispanic/Latino/a                          21%                  N = 106

Asian                                                           9%                     N = 40

Other/Multi-racial                           3%                     N = 15

No college degree                            61%                  N = 495

College degree or more              39%                  N = 324

Region Classifications

Northwest: Hunterdon, Morris, Somerset, Sussex, and Warren Counties
Northeast: Bergen and Passaic Counties
Urban Core: Essex, Hudson, Mercer, Middlesex, and Union Counties
South: Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, Gloucester, and Salem Counties
Coast: Atlantic, Cape May, Monmouth, and Ocean Counties

Question Wording and Order

First off, we’d like to ask you a few questions about the government here in New Jersey.

NJ1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Phil Murphy is handling his job as governor?

1. Approve
2. Disapprove
3. Not Sure/Don’t Know [Vol]
4. Refused [Vol]

NJ2. The New Jersey legislature is currently considering a bill that would make it harder for citizens to access to public records, and limit what records they can request. Supporters of the bill say that answering public records requests can be a burden on municipalities. Opponents of the bill say that access to public records helps uncover corruption and illegal behavior. What do you think? Should the state limit access to public records, or keep the system as it is?

1. Yes, should limit access to public records
2. No, should keep the system as it is
3. [Vol] Don’t Know/Refused

NJ3. There is currently no tax mechanism for electric vehicles to contribute to the New Jersey transportation trust fund used to fix roads and bridges. On average, New Jersey drivers of gas-powered vehicles pay around $300 into the transportation trust fund annually. Would you support a direct tax of $300 per year on electric vehicle drivers to help defray the costs of the wear and tear they contribute to our infrastructure?

1. Should have to pay higher registration fees
2. Should not have to pay higher registration fees
3. [Vol] Don’t Know/Refused

NJ4. Right now, revenues from the gas tax and vehicle registration are used to pay to repair and build roads and bridges, as well as rail improvements for NJ Transit. Both the transportation trust fund, which pays to build and maintain roads and bridges, as well as NJ Transit, are short on money. Do you think that revenues from the gas tax and registration should be used just for roads and bridges, or should be used to subsidize NJ Transit as well?

1. Gas tax used just for roads and bridges
2. Gas tax also used to subsidize NJ Transit
3. [Vol] Don’t Know/Refused

NJ5. There are currently a number of proposals in New Jersey to build more charter schools. These are privately run schools that receive state funding. Parents can choose to send their children to charter schools rather than local public schools. Supporters of charter schools say that they give parents more choice about their child’s education. Opponents say that they take money away from local public schools. What do you think? Should New Jersey build more charter schools, or keep things how they are?

1. Build more charter schools
2. Keep things as they are
3. [Vol] Don’t Know/Refused

G1. We’re asking people about past governors of New Jersey, but we only want to ask you about the governors that were in office since you’ve been here. Can you tell me what year you started voting in New Jersey?

[Note: if the metadata includes what year they registered to vote, we can probably skip this q]

[Record Year]

G2. I’m going to name some past governors. For each, tell me if you think they did a good job on the whole, a bad job on the whole, or if you’re not sure.

1. Good Job
2. Bad Job
3. Not Sure
4. Don’t Know [Vol]

1. Refused [Vol]

[Respondents are only asked about governors who were in office since they’ve been voting in New Jersey. So, if someone said that they started voting here in 2005, they would only get Codey, Corzine and Christie.]

1. [Only if Before 1982] Democrat Brendan Byrne
2. [Only if Before 1990] Republican Tom Kean, Sr.
3. [Only if Before 1994] Democrat Jim Florio
4. [Only if Before 2001] Republican Christie Todd Whitman
5. [Only if Before 2002] Republican Don DiFrancesco
6. [Only if Before 2004] Democrat Jim McGreevey
7. [Only if Before 2006] Democrat Dick Codey
8. [Only if Before 2010] Democrat Jon Corzine
9. [Only if Before 2018] Republican Chris Christie

[Shuffle Order of General Election Match-Up Qs]

[In the following four questions, randomly assign the name of the Republican (and code which name respondent gets). Half of the questions should have “Christine Serrano Glassner, the Republican,” and half should have “Curtis Bashaw, the Republican.” Randomization should be on the respondent level, so one respondent will get either Bashaws or Glassner for both E1 and E2]

There will be an election later this year for the US Senate seat currently held by Bob Menendez, but it’s not yet clear who the candidates for the seat will be. I’d like to give you a few potential match-ups, to see who you would vote for in each case.

E1. [Shuffle Order of Candidates] Suppose that November’s election for Senate were between Andy Kim, the Democrat, and Christine Serrano Glassner/ Curtis Bashaw, the Republican. Would you vote for the Democrat, Kim, the Republican, Glassner/Bashaw, or would you not vote?

1. Democrat Kim
2. Republican Glassner/Bashaw
3. Would not vote
4. Don’t Know/Refused [vol]

E2. [Shuffle Order of first two Candidates, keeping Menendez in third spot]] Suppose that November’s election for Senate were between Andy Kim, the Democrat, Christine Serrano Glassner/ Curtis Bashaw, the Republican and Bob Menendez, running as an independent. Would you vote for the Democrat, Kim, the Republican, Glassner/Bashaw, the independent, Menendez, or would you not vote?

1. Democrat Kim
2. Republican Glassner/Bashaw
3. Menendez
4. Would not vote
5. Don’t Know/Refused [vol]

We’d like to ask you a few questions about the racial and ethnic mix in your neighborhood.

R1. Would you say the neighborhood where you live now is mostly white, mostly black, mostly another race, or a mix of races?

1. Mostly white
2. Mostly black
3. Mostly another race
4. A mix of races
5. DK [VOL]
6. Refused [VOL]

R2. Thinking about the neighborhood where you live, would you prefer more racial and ethnic diversity, less racial and ethnic diversity, or are things fine the way they are now?

1. More
2. Less
3. Fine the way they are now
4. Don’t Know [Vol]

R3. Now let’s talk about your local school district. In the area where you live, would you say the schools are segregated by race or is there a good mix of different races?

1. Segregated
2. A good mix
3. DK [VOL]
4. Refused [VOL]

R4. Would you say the schools where you live have students who are mostly white, mostly black, mostly another race, or are the students from a variety of races?

1. Mostly white
2. Mostly black
3. Mostly another race
4. Variety of races
5. DK [VOL]
6. Refused [VOL]

R5. Thinking about the schools where you live would you prefer more racial and ethnic diversity, less racial and ethnic diversity, or are things fine the way they are now?

1. More
2. Less
3. Fine the way they are not
4. DK [VOL]
5. Refused [VOL]

Demos

Just a few more questions, for statistical purposes

D1. In politics today, do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent, or something else?

1. Democrat
2. Republican
3. Independent  [ASK D1A]
4. Something Else/Other
5. DK/Ref [vol]

D1A. [Ask only if D1 is 3] Which way do you lean?

1. Democrat
2. Republican
3. Independent
4. Something Else/Other
5. DK/Ref                  [vol]

D1B. In addition, which of the following terms would you use to describe your political views? You can choose as many as you like. [Shuffle Order]

1. Liberal
2. Moderate
3. Conservative
4. Socialist
5. Progressive
6. Libertarian
7. America First
8. Nationalist

D2A. To ensure we are reaching people of all ages, would you please tell me your age?

____    (ENTER AGE: 98=98+, 99 = REFUSED)

[IF Don’t Know/REFUSED IN QD1, ASK:]

D2B.  Would you be willing to tell us whether it’s between…?

1. Under 30
2. 31 to 44
3. 45 to 64
4. 65 or over
5. [Refused]

D3. What was the last grade in school you completed? [CODE TO LIST]

1. Did not complete High School
2. High School Diploma or equivalent
3. Vocational or Trade School
4. Some college, but no degree
5. Associates, or other 2 year degree
6. Bachelor’s Degree
7. Graduate work, such as Law, MBA, Medical School, or similar
8. Refused (VOL)

D4. How would you describe your sex? Do you describe yourself as …

1. A Man
2. A Woman
3. Some other way
4. [DK/REF]

D5. How would you describe your racial and ethnic background? You can pick as many as you’d like.

1. White
2. Black
3. Asian
4. Hispanic/Latino/a/Spanish
5. Other or Multi-Racial
6. [Dk/Ref]

D6. Have you ever owned any cryptocurrency, NFTs, or other similar digital products? It’s fine if you don’t know what those are.

1. Yes
2. No
3. Don’t know what those are
4. [Refused]

D7. The traits that we see as being masculine or feminine are largely determined by society, and have changed dramatically over time. As a result, everyone has some combination of masculine and feminine traits, which may or may not correspond with whether they’re male or female. How do you see yourself? Would you say that you see yourself as…

1. Completely Masculine
2. Mostly Masculine
3. Slightly Masculine
4. Slightly Feminine
5. Mostly Feminine
6. Completely Feminine
7. [Dk/Ref]

Thanks so much for your participation – you’ll see the results in the news in the next few weeks

Release Tables