Gaming a U.S. Senate Vacancy in Murphy World

The Menendez Trial drags on and as it does, so too does buzz about his political lifeline, and a likely successor. If the timeline bleeds into a presumed Murphy Administration, the new Democratic governor would have to make a political decision.

Below, we outline those possible options for Murphy, if in fact, it comes to that.

No one is saying U.S. Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ) is guilty, or that he won’t be back in the saddle next year. But realistically, insiders in the Democratic Party must face contingency plans if the trial muddies the senior senator out of contention.

If he beats Republican Kim Guadagno on Nov. 7th, Murphy may find himself handling his first significant political problem in this context.

There’s the Senate Presidency Option, which presupposes that an appointment of U.S. Rep. Donald Norcross (D-1) of South Jersey to the seat would enable Murphy, in the name of regional balance, to offload South Jersey-based Senate President Steve Sweeney (D-3) in favor of a Norcross alternative. Such a deal would require the Northern chairs to give the lines to Norcross to replace Menendez, and then rally around their own senate president. State Senator Bob Gordon (D-38) is rumored to be on his way to the Murphy Administration, and would be an unlikely option. The senate presidency, however, may keep him in the senate. Other possibilities include state Senator Nick Scutari (D-22) and Union County Sheriff (and LD20 state Senate candidate) Joe Cryan.

There’s the Bob Torricelli Option. The former U.S. Senator says he would pump $20 million of his own money into a contest. Money talks, particularly when it comes to the Democratic Party in New Jersey, which would rather someone self-fund than require county organizations to work harder. A bright light intellectually with real political and foreign policy chops, Torricelli could undoubtedly debate most anyone for the job, actually badly wants the job, and has a record as a cagey in-fight – but he announced his departure from office under an ethical cloud. (Nothing ever came of an Senate Select Committee on Ethics probe; in fact it was dropped). He’s kept himself close to Murphy, but would Murphy risk public backlash by reinstalling the Bergen brand name?

The third option would require Murphy to find a compromise choice between Norcross from the South and Torricelli from the North. On paper, veteran Central Jersey U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone (D-6) – the dean of the Democratic Congressional delegation – is the most obvious choice. He’s got the policy chops. He has a solid progressive record, with that vote against the Iraq War a stand-out statement, not to mention longtime in-the-weeds work on healthcare reform. Critics say he had his chance to be senator when Torricelli announced his decision to not pursue reelection in 2002. But he showed his ambition to move up when he ran for a senate seat in that 2013 Democratic Primary, and was apparently stunned and hurt by the statewide beat-down administered by winner U.S. Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ). Subsequent to that election, Pallone beat the odds to become the Democrats’ ranking member on the Energy and Commerce Committee, a position that insiders say would arguably be sufficient to keep him powerfully grounded in the U.S. House of Representatives rather than back-benching it in the Senate. People also talk about U.S. Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-9) as a Murphy option, but the choice would unleash civil war in the potentially volatile 9th District. If the argument gets down to new blood, a tough campaigner and – arguably – the merit of a millennial-friendly candidate who can serve for years, U.S. Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-5) also presents an option for Murphy. The state, of course, has a sizeable and powerful Jewish population. There are questions, however, about whether Democrats would want to give up a hard-won congressional seat. If Murphy goes with Gottheimer, look for Assemblyman Tim Eustace (D-38) to make an effort to prop the fifth for the Dems.

The fourth option is for Murphy to stay out of a fight by picking an obvious placeholder for the seat. Sources say Senate Majority Loretta Weinberg (D-37) could be an option here. He puts the progressive people’s champion from Bergen (a county that so far gets absolutely zero from the settling leadership and LG deals) on the track for a victory lap and then keeps his head down once the 2018 Democratic Primary war begins. Sources say state Senator Dick Codey (D-27) would not be a placeholder option for Murphy, as the presence of Codey in Washington would probably infuriate the south sufficiently to jam the governor up on the legislative side, with Sweeney still at the helm of the senate. As for the Brendan Gill (Murphy’s campaign manager) option, with the recent precedent of Gov. Chris Christie choosing Jeff Chiesa to serve as a senate placeholder: it’s unlikely that Gill, once installed, would want to give up the seat.

The fifth option is for Team Murphy to wake up suddenly, feel the sting of Menendez and Speaker Vincent Prieto going down and the enduring backlash of an all-white male (and all-Irish American) Trenton leadership structure, and say, “Holy -s-t, we need an Hispanic!” If that happens, look for U.S. Rep. Albio Sires (D-8) to get a hard look, as well as state Senator M. Teresa Ruiz (D-29). When he chose his own replacement in the U.S. Senate in 2005, Jon Corzine – partly in recognition of a voter demographic trend – opted Hispanic with Menendez.

Whatever Murphy does, and as much as he will try to ensure peace in 2018 if indeed the seat is vacant, someone is likely to run off the line. Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop told the Jersey Journal this week that he has “zero” interest in running. If he did, he would likely not have a clear shot at any of the lines, as the Democratic Party moved swiftly forward from the pre-primary days when Murphy, Sweeney and Fulop all jockeyed to kiss the rings of the requisite party bosses. But a strong, well-funded candidate could convince himself to run off the line, with 2017’s anti-establishment performances by Jim Johnson, John Wisniewski, Ray Lesniak and Bill Brennan all adding up to more votes than the 21-line-gounded Murphy. There’s some potential volatility. Johnson could run for county executive against powerful Essex County Executive Joe DiVincenzo, and CD7 and CD11 may not get resolved to the liking of the chairs in those counties. It is, in fact highly unlikely, that CD7 will not result in a bloody primary, giving an off-the-line guv candidate the chance to suction cup his campaign to a similarly disposed federal candidate. Of course, as happened in this year’s governor’s race, that off-the-line option could make no guarantees of a clear-cut shot, unsullied by other off-line types, who could simply turn the voters’ ability to assess an anti-establishment alternative into a circus. Another off-the-line possibility: Perth Amboy Wilda Diaz, whose supporters see her as a statewide anti-establishment option. And two others: Johnson and Wisniewski.

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