Polling Memo: Bayonne Mayor Davis Vulnerable in Next Year’s Mayor’s Race

Davis

The results of a Bayonne 2018 survey by McLaughlin and Associates shows that Mayor Jimmy Davis is vulnerable in the upcoming May 2018 Municipal Election. At first glance, according to the polling memo received by InsiderNJ, Davis appears to perform well on the ballot; however, his support is shallow and his job approval on property taxes, traffic and parking are upside down. Once voters learn that Davis’ “lack of responsibility and integrity will hurt them,” they vote against him. As part of Davis’ vulnerability, when voters consider his record on issues and are made aware of his liabilities, Jason O’Donnell leads Mayor Davis on an informed ballot, 50% to 28%, so Mayor Davis’ initial support collapses.

Here’s the full polling memo:

NJ – Bayonne Executive Summary 10-11-17

According to the poll, O’Donnell begins the campaign with 65% name awareness and a two-to-one favorable to unfavorable rating. Davis has 93% voter awareness and a similar two-to-one favorable to unfavorable rating. However, the mayor receives negative job ratings on taxes, traffic and parking.

Three-in-four voters are now aware of the federal investigation for texting and sexual harassment of a female City employee and if found to be true, a majority would want him to resign, the polling memo by McLaughlin reports. Two-thirds of the voters are less likely to vote for Davis knowing this incident could “cost them millions if found out to be true, while approximately 7in-10 voters are less likely to vote for Davis knowing the numerous tax breaks he issued for developers places a greater burden on local homeowners and hurts our schools.”

From these results, the polling memo notes that Davis’ support is thin. “His support is based on personality, but he is weak on the issues of taxes, traffic and parking. Furthermore, as the texting and sexual harassment scandal continues to percolate with potential costs to the taxpayers, Mayor Davis’ public support will collapse. Jason O’Donnell in contrast, has the right character and issue position to win decisively. With the proper resources to make voters aware of this reality, Jason O’Donnell should be successful in his campaign for Mayor of Bayonne.”

McLaughlin conducted the poll of 300 likely municipal election voters in Bayonne from September 19th, 2017 through September 20th, 2017. The firm conducted interviews via telephone. Interview selection was random within predetermined election units. 100 interviews (33%) were completed on cell-phones. These samples were then combined and structured to correlate with actual voter turnout in a municipal election.

This poll of 300 likely municipal election voters in Bayonne, New Jersey, has an accuracy of +/- 5.6% at a 95% confidence interval.

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