A shift by independent likely voters gives U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez, the Democratic incumbent, a 55 – 40 percent lead over Bob Hugin, the Republican challenger in the New Jersey U.S. Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

Only 4 percent of likely voters remain undecided, and 6 percent of voters who do name a candidate say they could change their mind by Election Day.

Today’s results compare to a 51 – 44 percent lead by Sen. Menendez in an October 17 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll.

Independent voters, women and non-white voters are the key to Menendez’ support:

• Independent voters back Menendez 53 – 39 percent, compared to 51 – 44 percent for Hugin October 17. Democrats back Menendez 89 – 8 percent, as Republicans back Hugin 95 – 4 percent;
• The Democrat leads 51 – 44 percent among men and 58 – 38 percent among women;
• The incumbent leads 71 – 19 percent among non-white voters. White voters are divided with 50 percent for Hugin and 47 percent for Menendez.

“While they may hold their nose to cast a ballot for Sen. Bob Menendez, voters signal they want to keep New Jersey’s Senate seat in the ‘D’ column in a blue state where President Donald Trump consistently remains unpopular,” said Mary Snow, polling analyst for the Quinnipiac University Poll.

From October 29 – November 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,115 New Jersey likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points, including the design effect.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Robert Menendez the Democrat and Bob Hugin the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Robert Menendez the Democrat or more toward Bob Hugin the Republican?

                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Menendez             55%     4%    89%    53%    51%    58%    52%    41%
Hugin                40     95      8     39     44     38     45     56
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      1      1      1      -
DK/NA                 4      1      3      6      4      4      2      2
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Menendez             42%    51%    47%    71%
Hugin                55     47     50     19
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      1
DK/NA                 2      2      2      8
 
                     WHITE...................
                     COLLEGE DEG   NO COLLEGE
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Menendez             48%    56%    36%    45%
Hugin                50     42     60     53
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      -
DK/NA                 1      2      4      1
 
                     REPUBLICAN    DEMOCRAT..    INDEPENDENT
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Menendez              5%     3%    82%    92%    55%    50%
Hugin                93     96     14      4     37     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      2      1
DK/NA                 2      1      4      3      6      7
 
                     AREA.............................
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Menendez             62%    57%    45%    62%    46%
Hugin                31     38     51     32     52
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      3      -      1
DK/NA                 7      4      2      6      1
 
 

1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Menendez      Hugin
 
Mind made up         93%    95%           92%
Might change          6      5             7
DK/NA                 1      -             1

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