BY COLLEEN O'DEA

With just a few days left in New Jersey’s 2026 midterms, Democrats continue to hold a large early vote advantage statewide and in two of the state’s Republican-held districts, though there’s still no guarantee of a blue wave like the one that swept three Republicans out of office in the last Trump midterms in 2018.

Close to 1 million of the New Jersey’s 6.7 million registrants had voted early, either in person or by mail, through Thursday, an analysis of state voter databases shows. Registered Democrats cast close to 60% of early votes so far, even though they make up about 38% of all registered voters. While more Democrats traditionally have embraced early voting than Republicans, the high turnout represents a high level of enthusiasm for the party that currently holds nine of the state’s dozen congressional districts.

Significantly, Democrats have an almost 24-point early vote advantage in the bellwether 7^th District, where Democrat Rebecca Bennett is challenging two-term incumbent Republican Tom Kean Jr. There are about 16,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats in that district. So far, about 27,000 more Democrats have voted than Republicans. Race rating websites and a poll by StimSight Research for InsiderNJ give Bennett the edge.

In the 2nd District that covers South Jersey, the idea that Democrat Zack Mullock could defeat Republican Jeff Van Drew, who won office as a Democrat in that 2018 blue wave and switch parties and professed his loyalty to President Trump a year later, was considered a pipe dream. Mullock is still the longshot, given there are about 24,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats in the district. But about 14,000 more Democrats had voted early than Republicans.

There’s no guarantee that all partisans have voted for their parties’ candidates, but it’s safe to assume most have, said Ben Dworkin, founding Director of the Rowan Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship at Rowan University in Glassboro.

“In this highly partisan world we live in, Democrats or Republicans voting early really makes a difference,” he said.

Still, there’s no way to know what the Election Day turnout may bring. A strong Republican showing could blunt or negate early Democratic enthusiasm. If Republicans stay home, though, the blue wave could be strong.

“No one knows how big this wave might be,” Dworkin said. “Nationally, the Republicans have a money advantage, but they spent it late. That was enough to build a wall, but is the wall big enough to let only a little bit of water in or will there be a big wave that swallows it up.”

The early Democratic leads in districts, though, do give the party an advantage, Dworkin said. It means the party does not have to work hard at getting people to the polls on Tuesday. The GOP, on the other hand, needs to motivate its base to go to the polls -- good weather would help – and counteract its current deficit.

“There’s a huge strategic advantage for the Democratic camps,” he said. “You can make better decisions on how to deploy resources that are almost always limited. Republicans, because they have not fully embraced the VBM system, have to spend the limited time that’s left in the campaign to get people out to vote on Election Day.”

Early voting continues in New Jersey through Sunday. Limited polling sites are open in every county 10 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Saturday and 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Sunday.

Anyone with a mail-in ballot can submit it through the 8 p.m. close of polls on Tuesday, Election Day. Multiple secure ballot drop boxes are available in every county or voters can deliver these in person to county boards of election offices. Those who decide to use the U.S. Postal Service should bring the ballot to a clerk to get it hand-stamped. Ballots must be stamped by Nov. 3 and received by county election officials by Nov. 9. A voter can still get a mail-in ballot by visiting the county clerk’s office by 3 p.m. on Monday.

Neighborhood polling locations will be open statewide Tuesday from 6 a.m. until 8 p.m.