Stockton Poll: Murphy and Guadagno Lead By Double Digits in Their Respective Primaries


Republican Kim Guadagno and Democrat Phil Murphy both lead by double-digit percentages in the primary races to select their parties’ nominees for New Jersey governor, according to a Stockton University Poll released today.

On the Republican side, Lt. Gov. Guadagno leads Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli by a margin of 37 percent to 18 percent, while GOP candidates Steven Rogers, Joseph Rullo and Hersh Singh all poll at less than 5 percent, with 34 percent undecided or naming a write-in candidate.

On the Democratic side, the poll shows Murphy, a former Goldman Sachs financier and ambassador to Germany, receiving triple the support of his closest rival with 34 percent. Former U.S. Treasury official Jim Johnson receives 10 percent, and Assemblyman John Wisniewski receives 9 percent. State Sen. Raymond Lesniak and Democrats Bill Brennan and Mark Zinna all poll at less than 5 percent.

The Stockton Polling Institute of the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy conducted the statewide poll of 791 likely New Jersey voters, calling only registered Democrats and Republicans who voted in the 2016 New Jersey primary. Both landline and cell phones were called by live interviewers from May 16-23, 2017, reaching 403 Democrats and 389 Republicans. The poll’s overall margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points and higher for data subsets. The MOE is +/- 4.9 percentage points for individual party results.

The new poll was the second Stockton University primary election poll, with the first having been conducted April 26-May 1, 2017 but not previously released. The two polls were taken before and after gubernatorial primary debates were held, including one for each party held May 9 at Stockton.

Between the polls, Guadagno solidified her lead, moving from 29 percent to 37 percent while the numbers for Ciattarelli, R-16th, barely changed from 19 percent to 18 percent. It appeared undecided voters mainly moved to Guadagno as their share of respondents declined by 10 points. Among only respondents who made a candidate choice in the latest poll, Guadagno would lead Ciattarelli 54 percent to 27 percent.

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