The Implications of the Menendez Indictment

Democrats went into a bit of a tizzy on Friday morning as they suddenly absorbed the long percolating news of the feds charging U.S. Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ) following months of intrigue and a latest round of ominous stories.

First of all, to be clear, Menendez is innocent until proved guilty.

That said, a sitting U.S. Senator, chair of the Foreign Relations Committee, in any kind of trouble of this kind, let alone for a second time, creates a new dynamic.

Prior to this morning, the low-turnout legislative election cycle gave off a bit of a bore snore vibe.

Cartoons versus abortion.

But Menendez getting charged landed like a bomb in the middle of the wasteland, with battleground implications.

At yesterday’s Constitutional Officers Convention in Atlantic City, reporters identified four to seven races where Republicans might conceivably pick up seats in the state legislature. For years one of the Democrats’ key statewide leaders in this state, Menendez might have just assisted the GOP in flipping control of the state senate, where Democrats have a 25-15.

Republicans are at least almost assured of a pickup in LD-12, home of state Senator Sam Thompson (D-12), who switched parties in defiance of a head-hunting Middlesex GOP organization.

They like their chances in LD-4, where longtime state Senator Fred Madden (D-4) is retiring.

The other targeted areas?

LD-11

LD-16

LD-38

And maybe LD-14.

Thirty-eight and fourteen have long enticed Republicans.

But four, 11, and 16 all contain a particular salivation, as Democrats try to keep those respective contests centered on the issue of abortion.

Republicans to date in those battleground collisions have criticized the party in power for allowing Governor Phil Murphy to jack the state budget from $34 billion in the Chris Christie era, to $54 billion, and a host of other issues, from parental notification to a tax break for a Danish energy company.

But if Donald Trump’s legal woes gave defending Democrats a fall back position with their base, what might the GOP do with a profusion of ammunition in the form of a charged Menendez?

The usual volatility took on a new shape suddenly.

 

 

 

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