Who’s Up and Who’s Down: 12 Days Until D-Day and the Stockton U Factor
As we get closer to June 6th Election Day, a Stockton University poll released today shows the Lieutenant Governor leading Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli by a margin of 37 percent to 18 percent. That’s GREAT news for Murphy, a former Goldman Sachs financier and ambassador to Germany, whose backers hope Guadagno beats Ciattarelli so the ambassador has an easier lift in the general. Could be Italian bungalow time for the next few months if the poll holds. Oh, yeah – the same poll shows Murphy receiving triple the support of his closest Democratic Primary rival with 34 percent. Former U.S. Treasury official Jim Johnson receives 10 percent, and Assemblyman John Wisniewski receives 9 percent.
Vince Mazzeo, Andrew Zwicker, Joann Downey and Eric Houghtaling
As we get closer to June 6th Election Day, a Stockton University poll released today shows the Lieutenant Governor leading Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli by a margin of 37 percent to 18 percent. That’s GREAT news for incumbent Democrats in swing districts (LD2, LD16, and LD11), because Murphy beats Guadagno 50-25%, according to Quinnipiac. Democrats are already salivating at the prospect not only of protecting those seats, but of potential pickups.
Who is he? We don’t know. But he’s running with Assemblyman Andrew Zwicker (R-16) in a swing district and if Guadagno gets the GOP nomination he’s going to find a dump truck full of cash backed up to the edge of his campaign.
As we get closer to June 6th Election Day, a Stockton University poll released today shows the Lieutenant Governor leading Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli by a margin of 37 percent to 18 percent.
Here come the angry phone calls from Speaker Vincent Prieto (D-32) supporters, but bear with me: those swing district guys listed above are all on that list of supporters for Coughlin as speaker. If Guadagno’s the GOP nominee and she has to walk around the 20% job approval rating of Governor Chris Christie albatross around her in a match-up with Murphy, that bodes well for Zwicker-Houghtaling-Downey-Mazzeo, which bodes well for Coughlin. We agree with Sacco – the list is weak, in large part because it hinges on those battleground names – but if Guadagno’s the nominee, their reelection could be a cakewalk. “Game. Set. Match,” said a Middlesex insider last night. Not quite. But the poll nudges Coughlin’s cause. If that had been Ciattarelli beating Guadagno, then edge to Prieto.
All the work, all the time and energy, all the perceived momentum – and for what? A Stockton Poll that shows him trialing Guadagno 37-18%. Wait a minute – there’s still Election Day, and voters can be fickle. And, hey, didn’t the pollsters get that prez race wrong last year? Well, anyway, we’ll see.
A week after that Willingboro woodshedding, the Trump-encumbered 3rd District Republican Congressman resigned this week as co-chairman of the caucus of GOP moderates known as the Tuesday Group in the wake of what Politico described as “deep divisions among its members over the House Obamacare replacement bill he helped craft.” “You can’t lead people where they don’t want to go,” MacArthur said.
Mark Caliguire and Donna Simon
Sources in both parties argue that if Ciattarelli beats Guadagno on June 6th, the LD16 slate mates will walk into the Statehouse together, coat-tailed by a well-known and well-performing LD16 brand name at the top of the ticket. But today’s Stockton University poll shows Ciattarelli trailing Guadagno by double digits – not good news for Caliguire and Simon.
The LD11 candidate for the assembly faces the prospect of running in a split district on a ticket with Guadagno, by the reckoning of today’s Stockton Poll. If Quinnipiac is right, that means Acerra has to get his chin over a 50-25% top of ticket beat down (see above). Compounding matters was the cancellation Monday night (and rescheduling for some other time) of a Dave Rible-helmed breakfast for the Republican challenger.
Jim Johnson and John Wisniewski
Wiz had a good hit on Murph this week, right here. But the pair of serious challengers to Murphy can’t get out of each other’s way. Short of one of them bowing out now and backing the other in a noble statement of anti-Goldman Sachs nobility, they appear on pace to cancel each other out on June 6th, respectively polling at 10 and 9 percent.
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