Every seat in the New Jersey state legislature was up for election in 2023.  The Democrats held a 25-15 advantage in the State Senate and a 46-34 advantage in the General Assembly. So, with solid majorities in both Houses, control of either House was not in question, but the real question was whether the GOP could inch closer to 20 seats in the State Senate.

New Jersey Republicans were poised for a breakthrough, or so they thought. After all, the new legislative map, President Biden’s sagging approval ratings (37% in late October), and kitchen table issues (such as high housing costs, Gov. Murphy’s controversial “wind turbine” plan, and public-school curriculum concerns) all seemed to be in the GOP’s favor.

Not only did a breakthrough not materialize, but the GOP lost six State Assembly seats and only managed to break even in the State Senate. There were notable GOP county victories, including clean sweeps in Cumberland and Atlantic counties, as well as surprising local victories in Summit, Oradell, and Westfield. But overall, the New Jersey Republicans suffered a gut-wrenching defeat.

Several root factors contributed to the Republican’s poor performance. These included NJ GOP’s failure to recruit well-known elected municipal and county officials as State Senate candidates in targeted legislative races (like in LD 4, 11, 16, and 38); bitter and probably avoidable primaries (like in LD-3 and LD-4) left some county GOP organizations (like Gloucester) divided and short of resources; and the GOP’s grievance-based messaging did not connect with non-Republican and independent voters.

Maybe the real takeaway from the 2023 election is not just that the Republicans lost badly but that Republican activists, leaders, and donors have now lost confidence in the NJ Republican State Committee and its leadership. And things could get even worse for the GOP in 2024- particularly in North Jersey.  With the upcoming Presidential and U.S. Senate elections, expect a big turnout from the northern Democratic machine counties (Bergen, Hudson, Essex, and Union counties), especially if Tammy Murphy is the Democrat US Senate nominee. In the northern suburbs, proven vote-getters US Democratic Representatives Mikie Sherill and Josh Gottheimer are seeking re-election. Both are incentivized (because of higher political aspirations) to win their reelection bids by large margins. This suggests that the already dwindling Republican margins in some red North Jersey towns in Morris County and northern Bergen County may become even smaller (or worse.)

Here, then, are the top stories from the 2023 elections and the lessons for the NJ GOP as we head into the 2024 Presidential, US Senate, and congressional elections and the all-important 2025 gubernatorial election.

Recruitment woes:

Republicans viewed several Democratic senators like Vin Gopal, Joe Lagana, and Andrew Zwicker as vulnerable and were giddy at the prospect of getting closer to 20 seats in the State Senate. One problem: Republicans needed top-tier candidates (current elected officials with a proven track record and deep ties to the district) to challenge these senators.

Several prominent GOP candidates declined to run for State Senate seats. Popular Monmouth County commissioner Tom Arnone, who was generally regarded as one of the strongest possible GOP challengers in any of the State Senate races, decided not to challenge Vin Gopal. Instead, Arnone opted to concentrate on his responsibilities as County Commissioner Director. Similarly, Paramus Council President Robert Kaiser (a formidable opponent from the district’s strongest Republican town) decided against challenging Joe Lagana, and Hunterdon Commissioner John Lanza also decided against challenging Andrew Zwicker. It’s understandable why a current Republican officeholder would be reluctant to take on the challenge. These three races would be the most challenging and costly for any Republican to win, mainly because Dems vowed to raise all the money needed to win (and more); and there would be no popular Republican (like Chris Christie in 2013 or Jack Ciattarelli in 2021) leading the GOP ticket.

In the end, the three Senators who were considered “vulnerable” turned out to be not so vulnerable after all. Vin Gopal crushed Steve Dnistian (a Colts Neck business executive) 60% to 39%, while Joe Lagana handily defeated fellow Paramus resident Micheline Attieh 57% to 43%. Andrew Zwicker won his rematch against former Congressman Mike Pappas with a comfortable 56% to 43% margin.

The only real surprise here was Gopal’s margin of victory. It was one of the top 5 costliest campaigns in New Jersey history, with the Democrats enjoying at least a 7:1 fundraising edge (not including 3^rd party expenditures.)  Always a swing district, LD-11 got slightly more Democrat (about 1%) after redistricting. It’s a district where Independents and blue Democrats rule. Joe Biden won LD-11 by 12 points in 2020, but Jack Ciattarelli won LD-11 in 2021 by 2 points.  Congressional Democrats won LD-11 by 3 points in 2022 (even though popular Republican Congressman Chris Smith represents 40% of LD-11.)

The Monmouth GOP, however, also did their job, as both County Commission candidates, incumbent Ross Licitra and Shrewsbury Mayor Erik Anderson, easily won the two County Commission seats by more than 17,000 votes.

Ultimately, Gopal outperformed all polls and expectations and scored an impressive victory, winning 16 of 19 towns in LD 11.

RED WAVE IN SOUTH JERSEY 

                     Team Testa and the Cumberland County GOP

A red wave swept through Atlantic, Cumberland, and Cape May counties. Cumberland County, however, shined the brightest red as State Senator and Cumberland County GOP Chair Mike Testa (pictured, top) led the Cumberland GOP to a complete sweep. Not only did Team Testa win reelection with 65% of the vote, but the Cumberland GOP also won all the County seats, including Sheriff, Surrogate, and 3 County Commissioners. This sweep was the culmination of Testa’s hard work that began in 2019 and represents a remarkable electoral turnaround for Cumberland County.

It was quite an achievement. Once regarded as a Democratic stronghold, prominent Democrats such as Hillary Clinton (2016), Phil Murphy (2017), Robert Menendez (2018), and Joe Biden (2020) all won the county. They’re not the usual names that come up when discussing Mike Testa.

Since flipping the First in 2019, Testa, as a candidate and County chair, has been mindful of the County’s demographic changes and shifts in voter allegiances. 

Cumberland is one of the state’s youngest counties, with a median age of 38.2, and one of the most ethnically diverse. Approximately one-third of the county’s population is Hispanic.

To Testa, this was not a challenge to overcome but an opportunity to engage disenchanted Democratic voters- mainly Hispanic voters. “Nearly 33% of Cumberland County’s population is Hispanic or Latino”, Testa noted, “a demographic fact that our campaign leaned into by recognizing the need to reach all voters, regardless of historic voting patterns.” Many Hispanic voters “are now fleeing the Democrats in droves,” Testa argues, “presenting opportunities for Republican campaigns.”

One way the Cumberland GOP took advantage of this opportunity was by launching an effective grassroots campaign that included targeted outreach to Hispanic voters through Spanish-speaking ads and text messages for VBMs.

Cumberland GOP’s victory serves as an important lesson for Republicans in the upcoming elections. It shows that Republicans can win in counties with a diverse and younger population by focusing on practical solutions to the problems that matter most to voters, like taxes and affordability.

Keeping politics local: Atlantic County first

Fending off “dark money” and “phantom candidates”, Sen. Vince Polistina handily defeated former County Commissioner Caren Fitzpatrick 53%- 44% in LD-2.

Like LD-1, LD-2 also has a diverse population. Around 21% of the population is Hispanic, 17% is African American, and 8% is Asian. Democratic voters still outnumber Republican voters (roughly 37% to 26%), and about 35% of voters are unaffiliated.

Despite these obstacles, the Polistina team (Assemblywoman Claire Swift, and Assemblyman Don Guardian) led the Atlantic County GOP to a clean sweep, as the County GOP candidates won every county race. Dennis Levinson was re-elected as County Executive and Egg Harbor Township Committeeman Joe O’Donoghue defeated incumbent Sheriff Eric Sheffler. Long-serving incumbent John Risley easily won re-election, and Linwood Councilwoman June Byrnes won the other Commissioner seat, making an 8-1 Republican majority.

Polistina campaigned tirelessly, highlighting his record In Trenton and his focus on constituent service, and making it clear that Atlantic County was his priority. Fitzpatrick, on the other hand, tried to make the campaign about national issues and tie Polistina to the Congressional Republicans. Her strategy didn’t work, as Polistina wisely focused on the issues that mattered to LD-2 voters, like wind turbines (which Fitzpatrick supported), affordability, casino-smoking bans, and the Biden administration’s proposal to send 60,000 undocumented immigrants to the AC International Airport.

It was a significant victory in a strategically important, perennially competitive, and expensive-to-win district. 

The lesson learned here is that GOP incumbents with a proven track record need not be weighed down by national politics.

GETTING YOUNGER  

The GOP farm team got significantly deeper with the election or re-election of several younger Republicans.

Bridgewater Mayor (Somerset County) Matt Moench won an impressive re-election crushing Dan Hayes (the former Mayor who switched parties to run against Moench) by a vote of 6,561 to 5,098.

Two youngish GOP Mayors were elected to the Assembly. Charismatic Point Pleasant Beach Mayor Paul Kanitra was elected to LD-10, and Chester Mayor Mike Inganamort was elected to LD 24.

In Sussex County, 24-year-old farmer Jack DeGroot battled his way through a bruising GOP primary, defeating incumbent Herb Yardley and ultimately winning the election as Sussex County Commissioner.

This reflects a generational shift and a willingness among the NJ GOP and voters to embrace younger candidates. Sharing perspectives and different strategies to engage the state’s younger voters and families will benefit Republicans in messaging and engaging these voters.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The NJ GOP suffered a significant blow with the defeat of Sen. Ed Durr (LD-3) and its failure to win the open seat in LD-4. These defeats will have immediate impacts on the 2024 and 2025 elections.

Consider this: Once thought of as politically dead because of his loss to Durr in 2021, former Senate President Steve Sweeney announced that he’s now back and running for Governor in 2025 (securing the endorsement of 6 South Jersey Democrat County Chairs). South Jersey power broker George Norcross who announced in 2021 that he was “stepping back” from politics after the GOP’s victories in south Jersey in 2021, seems to be back in action. Not good news for the NJ GOP.

Other warning signs are on the horizon: the NJ GOP, for example, hasn’t had much success in Presidential and congressional elections, losing representation and suffering significant political ramifications.

In 2016, for example, Rep Scott Garrett lost re-election in part due to the lack of support from the NJ GOP and the Republican National Congressional Committee. This paved the way for Rep. Josh Gottheimer who helped make Bergen County a Democratic stronghold.

The 2018 New Jersey elections also paved the way for Democrat Representatives Mikie Sherill and Andy Kim, who both will play central roles in the 2024 elections.

Sherill was elected in CD-11- a seat Republicans had held since Dean Gallo defeated Rep Joseph Minish in 1984. Since then, Sherill has built a potent political organization that has put pressure on Republicans in Morris County to defend their base. Representatives Leonard Lance (CD-7) and Tom MacArthur (CD-3) were both defeated in 2018 and were replaced by Tom Malinowski and Andy Kim, respectively. It would take two cycles and redistricting for the Republicans to retake CD-7.  Andy Kim is not seeking re-election in CD-3 but instead will seek the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate against Sen. Bob Menendez and Tammy Murphy.

Congressional politics (and the House Republican agenda) are likely to play an important role in the New Jersey 2024 elections. Just look at 2018.  The loss of a portion of the SALT (State and Local Taxes) deduction, (part of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act), for example, likely factored in the election of Sherrill, Malinowski, and Kim.  An October 2019 analysis conducted by the Tax Policy Center showed that these three New Jersey congressional districts were among the top 10 districts in the country with the highest percentage of tax filers claiming the SALT deduction in 2016. NJ-11 (then represented by Rodney Frelinghuysen and now by Sherrill) had, in fact, the highest percentage in the country at 54.2%, followed closely by NJ-7 (then represented by Lance and now represented by Rep. Tom Kean, Jr.)  at 54%, and NJ-3 (then represented by MacArthur and now by Kim) ranked ninth with 45%.

Just like in state elections, affordability and pocketbook issues (like losing a significant tax deduction) were and remain a central issue for New Jersey voters.

Recruitment of top-tier candidates continues to plague the NJ GOP. To date, the NJ GOP has not recruited top-tier candidates for the U.S. Senate and/or for CD-5, CD-11, or even for Andy Kim’s open seat in CD-3. The CD-3 race (though difficult) presents the NJ GOP with the best opportunity to retake one of the Congressional seats lost in 2018.

Senators Testa and Polistina, along with many GOP state legislators, Mayors, and County Commissioners across the state, have demonstrated, however, that Republicans can win by recruiting high-quality candidates, engaging in effective minority outreach, and prioritizing affordability issues.

Unable to build on the successes of 2021, the NJ GOP has now suffered two (2) bad election cycles. From donors to activists to County Chairs to candidates on the ballot in 2024 and 2025, the sentiment is that the NJ GOP is adrift and rudderless- and it’s time for new leaders. The Republican victories in South Jersey shed light on what can be accomplished under effective leadership and new strategies.