The fall campaign for New Jersey’s 7th District House seat starts with the Democratic challenger Rebecca Bennett (47%) leading Republican incumbent Tom Kean Jr. (42%) among likely voters. Bennett gets a net positive rating from 7^th District voters – 40% favorable and 30% unfavorable – although 3 in 10 have no opinion of the first-time candidate. This contrasts sharply with voter views of the incumbent Kean, which stand at a negative 37% favorable and 55% unfavorable, with just 8% having no opinion.

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The most important issue factors for voters are Social Security and Medicare (31%), illegal immigration (31%), grocery and goods affordability (28%), healthcare costs (25%), threats to democracy (25%) and standing up to President Trump (25%), and lowering taxes (22%)  [note: voters could name up to 3 issues].  However, these issues are emphasized differently among the all-important soft voters. Social Security, healthcare costs, Trump and democracy are top factors for soft Bennett supporters. She has a clear advantage on handling these issues among all voters who consider them the most important factors in their vote. Among soft Kean supporters, illegal immigration and lowering taxes are top issues, and the incumbent has a decided edge there.

Making groceries and other goods more affordable is the one common issue that rises to the top for both soft Bennett and soft Kean supporters. Among voters who say this issue is an important factor in their vote, 39% see Bennett as being more likely to bring these costs down while just 17% give Kean the edge. Another 17% say neither candidate will improve the affordability of groceries and other goods and 25% say they are not sure which candidate would be able to do this.

“There are issues that drive out the base. For Democrats, it’s Trump and the safety net; for Republicans, it’s immigration and taxes. Both candidates have these voters virtually locked up. Then there is a small but crucial bloc that worries about paying their everyday bills. These voters are not locked in for either candidate but they are giving Bennett the edge right now,” said Patrick Murray of StimSight Research, who conducted the poll for Insider NJ.

Among voters who are not leaning toward either major party candidate, nearly 4 in 10 name Gaza as one of their top issues. A third-party candidate is running under the “Stop Israel’s Genocide” ballot slogan. He has the potential for earning a few points among the larger pool of voters but stands at just 1% among likely voters, because these third-party voters are much less motivated to turn out. In fact, on the question of motivation, Bennett voters (89%) are currently much more likely than Kean voters (75%) to say they are extremely motivated to vote this year.

Two years ago, Kean won his re-election bid by five points while Donald Trump took the district by one point. Now, Kean is actually in a worse position. While the president has a negative job rating of 44% approve and 58% disapprove in NJ7, the congressman’s job rating stands at just 37% approve and 60% disapprove. Kean (65%) is also much more likely than Bennett (45%) to be seen as someone who follows national party leadership. About 1 in 5 voters say that each candidate is independent-minded, but with a greater number saying they are not sure about Bennett on this question.

The survey was sponsored by InsiderNJ and conducted by StimSight Research on September 8-12, 2026 with a sample of 498 likely voters in New Jersey’s 7^th Congressional District. The sampling margin of error for this poll is +/-4.7 percentage points.