InsiderNJ Poll: Who will Win the Presidential Race, Trump or Biden?

Biden and Trump

The witching hour is upon us in this national presidential election, as Republican President Donald J. Trump tries to fend off Democratic challenger former Vice President Joe Biden.

The final full week is ending.

Tuesday, Nov. 3rd lies just ahead.

Trump repeatedly calls into question the legitimacy of the voting process, prompting U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to advise him to take the results of the election “like a man.”

From The Hill:

“Peaceful transfer? I absolutely want that. But ideally, I don’t want to transfer, because I want to win,” Trump said during a town hall.

“And then they talk about, ‘Will you accept a peaceful transfer?’ ” Trump continued. “The answer is yes, I will. But I want it to be an honest election. And so does everybody else.”

“The easiest thing for [Trump] to do is to stand up like a man and accept the results of an election of the American people,” said a confident Pelosi.

But the election is mostly seen as close, in no small part given 2016 predictions of a Hillary Clinton win over Trump that proved inaccurate.

Understandably, New Jersey neighbor Pennsylvania commands considerable attention this time. Incidentally, if you haven’t read InsiderNJ columnist Fred Snowflack’s barnstorming Pa. piecem you really ought to, and you can find it here.

If you doubt Pa.’s primacy in this election, consider this, from FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver:

“Michigan and Wisconsin have been the focus of a lot of attention from nervous Democrats for the past four years, in part because Hillary Clinton spent relatively little time there and lost both states in 2016. So if you told Democrats that Joe Biden would be up by 7 points in Wisconsin and 8 points in Michigan in polls with a week to go, they’d feel …

“Actually, who are we kidding? They’d still feel pretty nervous since the polls underestimated Donald Trump in these states four years ago! With that said, one key observation is that Biden could withstand 2016-style polling errors in those states and still win. (Clinton led by 4 points in Michigan and 5 points in Wisconsin in our final polling averages in those states in 2016, and then lost both states by less than one point. But Biden’s extra cushion means he could survive a 2016-magnitude miss.)

“The polls have been tighter in Pennsylvania, though. Biden’s current lead is just 5.1 points, and in 2016, polls were off by 4.4 points in the Keystone State — Trump won it by 0.7 points after trailing in our final polling average by 3.7 points there. So with a 2016-style polling error in Pennsylvania, Biden would be cutting it awfully close, perhaps even so close that court rulings on factors like “naked ballots” could swing the outcome.”

Today, both candidates staged events in Pennsyl… er, Florida, apparently in a dueling effort to eradicate any imminent hanging chads.

In New Jersey, early returns show more Democrats moving to the polls than Republicans, and appearing to give advantages to Democrats in key battlegrounds, but the GOP expects a late surge, and with it tighter races. Still, trying to relate outcomes in N.J. to the rest of the country is like trying to relate Goodfellas to Raintree County. It’s just not much of a match. Moreover, increasingly sources are worried about the aftermath of the election and the possibility of civil unrest, more than the election itself. All of that said, answer this question, would you…

Who will Win the Presidential Contest?

(Visited 28 times, 1 visits today)

2 responses to “InsiderNJ Poll: Who will Win the Presidential Race, Trump or Biden?”

  1. Actually if you follow the pattern this seems to represent in one of the so called Bluest of Blue states, that doesn’t bode well for the expectations of Democratic candidate elections across much of the country. Again i also would not put too much in the bank based on the present polling done by the so-called “experts” of polling. I think we may well see an election result that will make the “Elites” puke their guts out as they did after the 2016 election.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

News From Around the Web

The Political Landscape