Trump indictments matter, but only among Republicans who are paying attention

Legal woes don’t hurt Trump directly but do make Republicans more open to other candidates

Fairleigh Dickinson University, Madison, NJ, August 15, 2023 – As former President Donald Trump faces his fourth indictment in recent months, observers have begun to question why his legal woes don’t seem to have hurt his frontrunner status within the Republican primary contest for the 2024 Presidential nomination. According to new results from the FDU Poll based on a survey of Republican likely primary voters, Republican voters who pay the most attention to the news are more likely to view the indictments as legitimate and are less likely to support Trump, but are outweighed by those paying little attention to current events. The survey, which fielded before the Georgia indictments, also shows that reminding Republicans of the indictments makes Trump supporters more likely to say that they’re open to supporting other candidates.

Only 17 percent of likely voters in their state’s Republican primary say that the indictments against Trump are legitimate, with 75 percent saying that they are not, and 8 percent not sure. But these figures vary widely depending on how much people know about current events and politics. The poll measured political knowledge by asking respondents to identify who currently holds various offices (Speaker of the House, Secretary of State and Prime Minister of the UK). About a quarter (23 percent) were able to correctly name all three; about 15 percent couldn’t name any.

Among Republicans at the lowest levels of knowledge (unable to answer any of the knowledge questions), only 15 percent say that the indictments are legitimate, and Trump leads his nearest competitor, DeSantis, by 44 points (55 to 11). Republicans with the highest levels of knowledge (all three questions answered correctly) are about twice as likely to say that the indictments are legitimate (28 percent), and while Trump still has a lead, it’s much smaller: just 27 points over DeSantis (45 to 18).

“All the bad news in the world doesn’t matter if voters aren’t paying attention to the news,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of Government and Politics at FDU, and the director of the poll. “The indictments hurt Trump among knowledgeable Republicans, but there aren’t enough of them to cost Trump the primary, at least not yet.”

To examine the effect of the spate of indictments on support for Trump, an experiment was embedded in the poll. Half of respondents were asked about the indictments before being asked if they would consider supporting someone other than their initial choice; half were asked about the indictments only afterwards. All told, 48 percent of Trump supporters say that they would consider supporting someone else for the nomination. But when Trump supporters are reminded about the indictments, they become 11 points more likely to say that they’re open to supporting someone else (an increase from 43 percent to 54 percent). In effect, reminding voters about the indictments reduces the size of the “only Trump” wing of the party from 32 percent to 25 percent. In contrast, the “never Trump” wing of the party, currently supporting a different candidate, and saying that they will not consider supporting Trump, consists of 21 percent.

“All of these legal problems are having an effect,” said Cassino. “But even if Trump lost all of his supporters who say they’re open to someone else, he’d still be in the lead.”

Surprisingly, even among those Republicans who think that the indictments against Trump are legitimate, the former President retains some support. Nine percent of Republicans who say that the indictments against Trump are legitimate say that they’ll vote for him anyway.

“Some voters are going to support Trump no matter what he does,” said Cassino. “He’s said that he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue without losing support, and he’s not completely wrong.”

The poll differs from some other polls about the Republican Presidential Primary race because it sampled likely voters in a Republican primary contest, rather than likely Republican voters more generally.

Methodology

The survey was conducted between July 31 and August 7, 2023, using a sample of 806 past voters in Republican primaries and other nomination contests (such as caucuses), and including Republicans who had voted in open primary contests (like those used in California). This sample was supplemented with a sample of registered Republicans who had not voted in previous primaries, but had registered in the years since the last competitive primary was held in their state (dominantly younger voters).

The surveys were carried out via call and text by Braun Research of Princeton, New Jersey. The initial sample was obtained from Aristotle International of Washington, DC. Respondents were randomly chosen from the list, and contacted via either live caller telephone interviews, or text-to-web surveys sent to cellular phones, resulting in an overall sample of 806 respondents. 243 of the surveys were carried out via live caller telephone interviews on landlines, and the remainder (563) were done on a web platform via weblinks sent via SMS to cell phones, or via live caller cell phone interviews. Surveys were conducted only in English.

In accordance with RNC guidelines for polls to be used for debate qualification in the Republican Presidential Primary, only minimal weights were used for the survey. The weights used, like all weights, balance the demographic characteristics of the sample to match known population parameters. The weighted results used here are balanced to match parameters for age and race/ethnicity.

SPSSINC RAKE, an SPSS extension module that simultaneously balances the distributions of all variables using the GENLOG procedure, was used to produce final weights. Weights were trimmed to prevent individual interviews from having too much influence on the final results. The use of these weights in statistical analysis helps to ensure that the demographic characteristics of the sample approximate the demographic characteristics of the target population. The size of these weights is used to construct the measure of design effects, which indicate the extent to which the reported results are being driven by the weights applied to the data, rather than found in the data itself. Simply put, these design effects tell us how many additional respondents would have been needed to get the weighted number of respondents across weighted categories: larger design effects indicate greater levels of under-representation in the data. In this case, calculated design effects are approximately 1.1.

All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for 806 likely voters is +/-3.5 percentage points, at a 95 percent confidence interval. Including the design effects, the margin of error would be +/-3.9 percentage points, though the figure not including them is much more commonly reported.

This error calculation does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, differences in translated forms, or context effects. While such errors are known to exist, they are often unquantifiable within a particular survey, and all efforts, such as randomization and extensive pre-testing of items, have been used to minimize them.

The FDU Poll is a member of AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative. Members of the Transparency Initiative are committed to providing all of the information that readers need to evaluate the validity of the survey results that we present. This includes giving complete information about our sampling process, weighting process, demographics, and the complete text and order of questions with every release that we put out. At a time when survey research is increasingly being called into question, we believe that this sort of transparency is vital to creating informed consumers of polling information, and building faith in our work.

Weighted Telephone Sample Characteristics

806 Likely Republican Primary Voters

Figures do not include individuals who declined to answer demographic items.

Man

52%                N = 419

Woman

47%                N = 381

Some Other Way

0.5%               N = 4

18-30

2%        N = 18

31-44

11%              N = 87

45-64

40%              N = 328

65+

46%              N = 375

White

89%           N = 733

Black

1%           N = 6

Hispanic/Latino/a

4%           N = 30

Asian

0.4%           N = 13

Other/Multi-racial

4%           N = 29

Question Wording and Order

Screen. How likely do you think you are to vote in the 2024 Republican Presidential primary in your state when it happens?

1. Certain to Vote
2. Very Likely to Vote
3. Somewhat Likely to Vote [Terminate]
4. Not Very Likely to Vote [Terminate]
5. Not at all likely to Vote [Terminate]

US1. If the Republican Presidential Primary was held in your state today, who would you vote for? [Shuffle order of named options after Trump]

1. Donald Trump
2. Chris Christie
3. Ron DeSantis
4. Nikki Haley
5. Mike Pence
6. Vivek Ramaswamy
7. Or someone else?
8. Or do you not know?

US1a. [If “Someone Else” in US1] Would that be… [Shuffle order of named options]

1. Doug Burgum
2. Larry Elder
3. Will Hurd
4. Asa Hutchinson
5. Francis Suarez
6. Tim Scott
7. Or someone else?

US1b. [If “Don’t Know” in US1] Which candidate are you currently leaning towards? [Shuffle order of named options after Trump]

1. Donald Trump
2. Chris Christie
3. Ron DeSantis
4. Nikki Haley
5. Mike Pence
6. Vivek Ramaswamy
7. Or someone else?

US1c. [If “Someone Else” in US1b] Would that be… [Shuffle order of named options]

1. Doug Burgum
2. Larry Elder
3. Will Hurd
4. Asa Hutchinson
5. Francis Suarez
6. Tim Scott
7. Or someone else?

US1d. [If “Someone else” in US1a orUS1c] Who would that be? [Record Name]

US2a. [Half of sample gets this item here, half gets US2b] In your judgment, are the indictments against Donald Trump for tax evasion and mishandling classified documents legitimate, or not?

1. Legitimate
2. Illegitimate
3. Don’t Know

US3a. [If respondent favors Trump in US1 series] Are you open to supporting someone other than Trump in the primary, or would you not consider supporting anyone else?

1. Would consider someone else
2. Would not consider anyone else
3. Not Sure/Don’t Know [Vol]

US3b. [If respondent favors or leans towards anyone other than Trump in US1 series] Are you open to supporting Trump in the primary, or would you not consider supporting him?

1. Would consider supporting Trump
2. Would not consider supporting Trump
3. Not Sure/Don’t Know [Vol]

US2b. [Half of sample gets this item here, half gets US2a] In your judgment, are the indictments against Donald Trump for tax evasion and mishandling classified documents legitimate, or not?

1. Legitimate
2. Illegitimate
3. Don’t Know

US4. Do you think abortion should be legal under any circumstances, legal only under certain circumstances, or illegal in all circumstances?

1. Legal under any circumstances
2. Legal only under certain circumstances
3. Illegal in all circumstances
4. [Don’t Know/Refused]

US5. How likely do you think it is that there will be a second US Civil War in your lifetime?

1. Very Likely
2. Somewhat Likely
3. Not Very Likely
4. Not at all Likely
5. Not Sure

For the next few items, I’d like you to tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with the statement, or if you’re not sure.

S1. Most women fail to appreciate all that men do for them.

1. Strongly Agree
2. Somewhat Agree
3. Somewhat Disagree
4. Strongly Disagree
5. Not Sure

S2. Women seek to gain power by getting control over men.

1. Strongly Agree
2. Somewhat Agree
3. Somewhat Disagree
4. Strongly Disagree
5. Not Sure

S3. Most women interpret innocent remarks or acts as being sexist.

1. Strongly Agree
2. Somewhat Agree
3. Somewhat Disagree
4. Strongly Disagree
5. Not Sure

We’re asking some questions to see how good a job the media is doing in informing the public. If you’re not sure of an answer, you can’t just say that you’re not sure.

K1. To the best of your knowledge, who is the current Prime Minister of the United Kingdom? Is it… [Shuffle order of answers]

1. Boris Johnson
2. Liz Truss
3. Rishi Sunak
4. Theresa May
5. Not Sure

K2. Who is the current Secretary of State of the United States? Is it… [Shuffle order of answers]

1. Anthony Blinken
2. Daniel Bennett Smith
3. John J. Sullivan
4. Mike Pompeo
5. Not Sure

K3. Who is the current Speaker of the House of the United States? Is it… [Shuffle order of answers]

1. John Boehner
2. Kevin McCarthy
3. Nancy Pelosi
4. Paul Ryan
5. Not Sure

Demos

Just a few more questions, for statistical purposes

D2A. To ensure we are reaching people of all ages, would you please tell me your age?

____    (ENTER AGE: 98=98+, 99 = REFUSED)

[IF Don’t Know/REFUSED IN QD1, ASK:]

D2B.  Would you be willing to tell us whether it’s between…?

1. Under 30
2. 31 to 44
3. 45 to 64
4. 65 or over
5. [Refused]

D10. Aside from weddings and funerals how often do you attend religious services… more than once a week, once a week, once or twice a month, a few times a year, seldom, or never?

1. More than once a week
2. Once a week
3. One or twice a month
4. A few times a year
5. Seldom
6. Never
7. Don’t Know [Vol]
8. Refused [Vol]

D6. How would you describe your sex? Do you describe yourself as …

1. A Man
2. A Woman
3. Some other way
4. [DK/REF]

D7. How would you describe your racial and ethnic background? You can pick as many as you’d like.

1. White
2. Black
3. Asian
4. Hispanic/Latino/a/Spanish
5. Other or Multi-Racial
6. [Dk/Ref]

D8. Have you ever owned any cryptocurrency, NFTs, or other similar digital products? It’s fine if you don’t know what those are.

1. Yes
2. No
3. Don’t know what those are
4. [Refused]

D9. The traits that we see as being masculine or feminine are largely determined by society, and have changed dramatically over time. As a result, everyone has some combination of masculine and feminine traits, which may or may not correspond with whether they’re male or female. How do you see yourself? Would you say that you see yourself as…

1. Completely Masculine
2. Mostly Masculine
3. Slightly Masculine
4. Slightly Feminine
5. Mostly Feminine
6. Completely Feminine
7. [Dk/Ref – Vol]

Release Tables

A value of 0% in a cell means that respondents were recorded, but they consisted of less than 0.5% of the column, and the number rounds down to 0 percent. If there is no number in a cell, it means that no respondents were recorded in that cell.